Gov. Patrick declares emergency, activates National Guard as powerful Irene approaches

By Martin Finucane, Globe Staff

Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick has declared a state of emergency and activated the National Guard as the state braces for the torrential rain, pounding waves, and howling winds expected from a dangerous and powerful Hurricane Irene.

Five hundred guardsmen have already been activated, and another 2,000 will be activated by Saturday morning, Patrick said in a news conference this afternoon detailing the state’s preparations for the storm.

“The whole Commonwealth is as prepared as we can be,” he said. “We will be ready for what comes.”

Patrick and other officials at the news conference urged people to stay off the roads from Saturday evening through the end of the storm; to avoid downed power lines; and to beware of riptides and strong currents at the shore. They also advised coastal residents to monitor the storm closely and heed the advice of local officials who might call for an evacuation.

With the hurricane still hundreds of miles away but computer projections showing it crashing through Massachusetts on Sunday, the National Weather Service late this afternoon issued hurricane warnings for coastal areas and tropical storm warnings for the interior. The warnings mean that the hurricane or tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours.

“This could come close to rivaling Bob,” said Bill Simpson, a meteorologist at the weather service office in Taunton, referring to the hurricane 20 years ago that caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage and six fatalities in Southern New England.

The storm is disrupting myriad end-of-summer vacations as it targets the East Coast, and it appeared to have affected one very prominent vacationer in Massachusetts. President Obama, who has been receiving briefings on the storm during his stay on Martha’s Vineyard, plans to leave the island tonight with his family, rather than Saturday, according to a pool report.

The exact impact of the hurricane remains uncertain but forecasters say to expect a “very significant and potentially damaging event” across Southern New England.

High surf and dangerous rip currents have already developed in some coastal areas, the forecasters said.

With some areas expected to get 5 to 10 inches of rain, there is the potential for “moderate to major urban and river flooding,” the forecasters warned in a discussion posted on the agency’s website.

Wind gusts could bring down trees, causing widespread extended power outages, the agency warned, urging people to be prepared.

Flooding is expected along both the state’s east and south coasts, but the south coast is expected to be hit hardest, with up to an 8-foot storm surge in Buzzards Bay, and it could be a “dangerous and life-threatening” event, the agency said. The timing of the storm’s arrival will play a key role -- whether it arrives as the tide is coming in or out will determine how far water is pushed up on shore.

As if that weren’t enough, the agency is also warning that the hurricane may spawn tornadoes. The weak, short-lived tornadoes would be generated mainly on the north and northeast side of the system.

Patrick detailed the state’s emergency preparations at a news conference this afternoon at the Framingham bunker where the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency is headquartered.

Among the measures being taken by the state, according to officials: state officials are working with gas and electric utilities to make sure they are prepared to restore lost service; debris clearance teams have been mobilized and shelters have been readied; state reservoirs have been drawn down; and all state parks will be closed by noon on Saturday.

MBTA said no interruptions in service were expected. But Logan International Airport officials said at a news conference late this afternoon that while the airport would not be closed, 80 percent of airlines were canceling flights on Sunday and the other 20 percent were considering it. Monday was expected to be a nightmare at the airport. It’s already a busy day normally, but the crowds were expected to swell with people leaving a day later than they expected.

Patrick said he was concerned that the track of the storm suggested that the whole state would be affected. He also said he was concered that the track of the storm takes it near Springfield, an area that was devastated by tornadoes in June.

The prelude to the storm will come Saturday night, which forecasters say will be a “washout” due to rainstorms generated by moisture streaming ahead of the hurricane. Tropical storm force winds, which are defined as being from 39 to 73 miles per hour, are expected to affect the area by early Sunday morning. Strong tropical storm force winds are expected by late Sunday morning.

The chances of tropical storm conditions are up to 68 percent, forecasters said. Chances of hurricane conditions, in which winds blow 74 miles per hour or faster, are 6 to 11 percent.

“This represents a general upward trend since the last forecast,” the forecasters said in the discussion.

The projected track of the storm, which on Thursday ran to the west of Springfield, has wobbled east slightly as of this morning. Now it runs slightly east of Springfield.

While noting that there’s still uncertainty about the track, forecasters said the heaviest rain is likely to fall on the west side of the storm, while wind gusts and storm surge are the threat on the east side of the storm.

Simpson said the public typically focuses on the path of the hurricane, but he warned that “it‘s a pretty broad system” and its effects could be felt far from the center.

“There’s going to be a huge swath of 5 to 10 inches of rain through the densely populated Northeast Corridor,”Bill Read, director of the National Hurricane Center, said at a news conference this morning.

Officials with the Federal Emergency Management Administration and the American Red Cross urged people to prepare -- and to heed orders to evacuate, if they’re issued.

Damage can’t be prevented, said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate, but “one thing we can change the outcome on is loss of life.”

American Red Cross Chief Executive Gail McGovern said thousands of volunteers were mobilizing on the East Coast to help respond to the impacts of the hurricane. Resources were also being prepositioned, including 60,000 ready-to-eat meals that were being sent to Massachusetts.

Home and business owners should follow their emergency plans and prepare for power outages, and boaters should return to port and secure their craft, the weather service advised.

As of 8 a.m., Irene was 375 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, N.C., moving north at 14 miles per hour. It’s expected to approach the coast of North Carolina tonight.

New England was already bracing for the most menacing storm in years. Signs on major highways heading into Boston are warning, “Plan Ahead -- Severe Weather Expected.”

“We’re preparing for the worst. But even a near miss is going to have a significant impact,” Peter Judge, a spokesman for the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency, told the Globe in today’s editions.

Akilah Johnson of the Globe staff contributed to this report.