In ending his too-early US Senate campaign, Setti Warren aiming to salvage Newton mayoralty

By Glen Johnson, Globe Staff

Setti Warren’s best campaign move may have been the video he made announcing his US Senate candidacy. His second-best may have come this morning, when he pulled the plug on his failing bid.

The Newton mayor was strong on paper: homegrown, with a compelling family story, a record of military service, as well as experience - and contacts - linking him to state and national Democratic circles.

And yet it was those connections that may have undermined a potentially bright political future.

This spring, Warren heard the whispers of political experts including and surrounding Governor Deval Patrick and Senator John Kerry: “You have it all: A liberal base, a record as a chief executive, and a personal narrative that could make you the only African-American in the Senate.”

Never mind that Warren was barely 40, or that he was sworn in as mayor only in January 2010.

Never mind, too, that should he have won the Democratic nomination, he would have been matched in a nationally watched race against an aggressive campaigner and Republican hero, Senator Scott Brown.

And never mind that had he made it to that general election, he would have spent more time running for senator than he had already spent as mayor when he kicked off his campaign.

The Patrick team, and its de facto extension, the Massachusetts Democratic Party, believe that the 2012 Senate general election will be far different from the 2010 special election in which Brown stunned them by defeating another party establishment choice, Attorney General Martha Coakley.

They take comfort in the math: Overall, Brown received 1.168 million votes, or 52 percent of the total cast. Coakley got 1.059 million, or 47 percent.

A total of 2.249 million votes were cast, with Brown getting 109,000 more than Coakley.

Yet next year’s Senate election will coincide with the presidential election.

The last time that happened, in 2008, the Democratic candidate - Barack Obama - pummeled Republican nominee John McCain by a margin of 61 percent to 38 percent. Obama got 1.904 million votes, while McCain got 1.109 million. A total of 3.103 million votes were cast.

That is 854,000 more votes than in the Brown-Coakley special election.

If there is a similar turnout next year, the state Democrats believe, it will break proportionally in their favor.

Against that backdrop, the governor nudged along the specter of a Warren candidacy by publicly revealing the mayor had talked to him privately about a campaign.

The state party, led by former Patrick campaign manager John Walsh, also talked openly about its interest in a homegrown, broad primary field.

Even President Obama, a personal friend of the governor’s and someone with a vested interest in a Democratic Senate majority, talked to Warren about a campaign during a visit to Boston in early March.

On May 9, Warren took the plunge, announcing his campaign via a heavily produced video.

“Many of you don’t know me; I’m probably about as well known as Scott Brown was at this point two years ago,” Warren said as he sat on the front lawn of his childhood home, which he now owns.

Mimicking a line used by Walsh himself, he added: “I believe Scott Brown is an honorable man, but he has not been the independent voice in the Senate that so many expected him to be. He’s voted 87 percent of the time with his national Republican leaders.”

Evidence of the veteran political advisers behind him, Warren had begun raising money in a bank account he opened the week before he declared his candidacy. And he was helped with the video by Putnam Partners, the firm that produced Obama’s 30-minute address to the nation amid his successful 2008 campaign for the presidency.

But even before Warren declared his candidacy, there were signs of trouble.

Newton residents registered their disapproval, with some telling their new mayor he should resign if - not even 18 months into his four-year term - he wanted to immediately spend time campaigning for another office.

In mid-March, a profile-raising appearance on WCVB-TV backfired when Warren stumbled in a pop quiz by wrongly claiming a potential Senate colleague - Dianne Feinstein - had been the San Francisco mayor assassinated in 1978 (it was George Moscone).

Massachusetts Republicans pounced on the gaffe, branding Warren “not ready for primetime.”

Then, Warren and the five other Democrats already running for their party’s Senate nomination were beset by rumors that some Washington Democrats were trying to coax an Obama administration figure - Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren (no relation) - into the race.

Walsh and other Democratic leaders pushed back, saying they favored a candidate emerging organically from the primary process, rather than imposed upon them by the Washington establishment.

That stance lasted until June 30, the end of the second fund-raising quarter.

Setti Warren reported raising an anemic $122,000. Reports of a lackluster work ethic circulated through the party faithful. Another supposedly top contender, City Year co-founder Alan Khazei, raised $930,000, but only $700,000 could be spent in a primary campaign. The rest could only be spent if he reached the general election.

By contrast, Brown reported $9.6 million in the bank.

During a mid-July interview with the Globe’s Joan Vennochi, Walsh sounded a different theme, openly encouraging a candidacy by Elizabeth Warren.

“I would love it if she were interested in joining the race. I would talk to her and encourage her in a heartbeat,” the chairman said.

Khazei, Setti Warren, and the remaining candidates - who were already campaigning and fund-raising and had upended their lives in pursuit of the nomination - were incensed at what they viewed as a betrayal.

The infighting only served to boost Brown’s prospects.

In August, Elizabeth Warren left the Obama administration, came home to Massachusetts, and launched a “listening tour” to weigh a campaign.

This month, she dropped all pretense and - in her own video - formally declared her candidacy. She is being advised by Patrick’s top political strategist, Doug Rubin, and by the governor’s former communications director, Kyle Sullivan.

Tomorrow, the candidates are due to file their third-quarter campaign finance reports.

Brown will almost assuredly go over $10 million cash on hand. Some of his advisers think Elizabeth Warren may report raising $2 million.

It’s safe to assume, given the numbers Setti Warren posted during the prior quarter, he would not have come near that total.

So, today, he spared himself further embarrassment by quitting the campaign.

“It was clear to me in the last days and weeks that we faced overwhelming political and financial odds,” Warren proclaimed.

And instead of continuing a longshot bid to become a US senator, he will work instead to make amends to Newton residents.

At stake in that campaign is not just a mayoralty, but a political career that got pushed ahead of itself.