Wesley Morris's Oscar picks

BEST PICTURE

Will win “The King's Speech"

Should win “The Fighter’’

Was robbed “Inside Job"

Shouldn't be here “The King's Speech’’

Not everyone likes “The King’s Speech,’’ but bad-mouthing it is starting to feel like heresy. People buy the sense of triumph, which means “The Social Network’’ is doomed. One movie is about the suffering of a rich person. The other is about a rich person who makes other people suffer. With the new weighted voting system, a left-field win is going to happen someday. If this is the year for that win, that movie is “The Fighter.’’

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win David Fincher, “The Social Network"

Should win David O. Russell, “The Fighter’’

Was robbed Marco Bellocchio, “Vincere"

Shouldn't be here Tom Hooper, “The King's Speech’’

Always dismissed as a kind of pulp stylist, David Fincher has moved closer to a more tasteful center — at least until his Stieg Larsson movie arrives later this year. Thrilling as it is, “The Social Network’’ is Fincher under the spell of Aaron Sorkin’s script. It’s quite a spell, but I more love how David O. Russell saw in “The Fighter’’ a chance to turn Irish tragedy into the Fourth of July.

BEST ACTOR

Will win Colin Firth, “The King's Speech"

Should win Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network’’

Was robbed Aaron Eckhart, “Rabbit Hole"

Shouldn't be here Jeff Bridges, “True Grit ’’

By now Colin Firth’s excellence as a future king and present stutterer is almost axiomatic. He moved me, even if the movie made me roll my eyes. I prefer Javier Bardem’s heroic moroseness and, even better, Jesse Eisenberg’s pathological brattiness. He makes Mark Zuckerberg fascinatingly impenetrable without turning him opaque. Eisenberg’s usually know-it-all-ness gets a sour reinvention.

BEST ACTRESS

Will win Natalie Portman, “Black Swan"

Should win Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole’’

Was robbed Anne Hathaway, “Love & Other Drugs"

Shouldn't be here Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine’’

Poor Annette Bening. Her ongoing inability to win one of these statues — 10 nominations for “Bugsy,’’ not one for her! — casts dubiousness over the entire affair. This appears not to be her year, either, despite another superb feat of sugar-free acting. Natalie Portman lost weight to play a character who loses her mind and will win an Oscar. America loves her. But, playing a mad mom, Nicole Kidman gives good grief.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win Christian Bale, “The Fighter"

Should win Christian Bale, “The Fighter’’

Was robbed Matt Damon, “True Grit"

Shouldn't be here Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right’’

Christian Bale’s gifts as a technician have never been in doubt. The question has always been whether he could grant the mechanics a soul. He’s so good in “The Fighter’’ that even when crack has hollowed out Dicky Eklund, he’s still electrically full of himself. Meanwhile, Geoffrey Rush is both Colin Firth’s comic underminer and straight man. He and Bale are leads relocated here mostly for politics.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win Melissa Leo, “The Fighter"

Should win Melissa Leo, “The Fighter’’

Was robbed Shareeka Epps, “Mother and Child"

Shouldn't be here Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom’’

Thank goodness for “The Fighter.’’ Otherwise, this would be the least exciting collection of support work in years. Instead, there’s Amy Adams, whose sensually soft-looking exterior masks eye-blackening toughness. Playing the leading lady as bruiser, she does sneak-attack character work. Melissa Leo doesn’t sneak anything. It’s all attack. She screams, cries, curses, moans, and wails. We, in turn, stand, howl, and salute.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win Christopher Nolan, “Inception’’

Should win Mike Leigh, “Another Year’’

The Academy will correct the gathering sense of shame that Christopher Nolan was omitted from best director. Still, the ongoing use of the writing categories as a snubbed director’s consolation prize is wrong. That said, Mike Leigh’s script for “Another Year’’ is pretty wonderful.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network’’

Should win Michael Arndt, “Toy Story 3’’

Aaron Sorkin really wants to win this and the Academy really wants to give it to him.

Meanwhile, “Toy Story 3,’’ which apparently has been adapted from itself (it’s the Academy’s sequel rule), comes as close to existential profundity as a cartoon can get without mentioning Hayao Miyazaki or God.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will win “Waste Land’’

Should win “Inside Job’’

For once, the category comes down to five movies that highlight a great year for nonfiction. The most searing of them was previous winner Charles Ferguson’s financial-crisis thriller, but “Waste Land’’ is the film rich Hollywood people can feel best about voting for.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Will win “Toy Story 3’’

Should win “Toy Story 3’’

The unofficial name for this category should be: “We’re sorry, Pixar, but as long as this category exists we have no reason to take your best picture nomination seriously.’’

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Will win “In a Better World’’

Should win “Dogtooth’’

Alejandro González Iñárritu’s “Biutiful’’ is too depressing. Giorgos Lanthimos’s psycho-comedy “Dogtooth ’’ — a shock nominee — is too weird. Susanne Bier’s family melodrama is just right.

ORIGINAL SONG

Will win “We Belong Together’’ (“Toy Story 3’’)

Should win “I See the Light’’ (“Tangled’’)

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will win Alexandre Desplat, “The King’s Speech’’

Should win Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, “The Social Network’’

FILM EDITING

Will win Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, “The Social Network’’

Should win Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, “The Social Network’’

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will win Wally Pfister, “Inception’’

Should win Wally Pfister, “Inception’’

MAKEUP

Will win Rick Baker and Dave Elsey, “The Wolfman’’

Should win Adrien Morot, “Barney’s Version’’

ART DIRECTION

Will win Larry Dias, Guy Hendrix Dyas, and Doug Mowat, “Inception’’

Should win Larry Dias, Guy Hendrix Dyas, and Doug Mowat, “Inception’’

COSTUME DESIGN

Will win Colleen Atwood, “Alice in Wonderland’’

Should win Antonella Cannarozzi, “I Am Love’’

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Will win “Strangers No More’’

Should win “Sun Come Up’’

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Will win “Day & Night’’

Should win “Day & Night’’

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

Will win “Na Wewe’’

Should win “Na Wewe’’

SOUND EDITING

Will win Richard King, “Inception’’

Should win Mark P. Stoeckinger, “Unstoppable’’

SOUND MIXING

Will win Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo, Ed Novick, “Inception’’

Should win Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo, Ed Novick, “Inception’’

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will win Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley, and Peter Bebb, “Inception’’

Should win Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley, and Peter Bebb, “Inception’’