Oscar nomination predictions

Ty Burr here, fit, tan, and rested after my Sundance adventure/death-march (I'm reading Wesley's postings with a certain amount of schadenfreude -- drink lots of coffee between each screening, friend.)

Looking ahead, Tuesday morning comes the announcement of the 2005 Academy Award nominations at 8:30 a.m. eastern time, which means that some poor rising starlet has to be on-camera at 5:30 Hollywood time looking perky and serious. Which means that hair and make-up probably start around midnight. Anyway, here's my best guess of who's going to get the nod in the major categories. No winner predictions yet; let's just let the nominees bask in their deserved glory for a bit.

Best Picture:
"Brokeback Mountain"
"Capote"
"Crash"
"Good Night, and Good Luck"
"Munich"
Dark Horses: "The Constant Gardener," "A History of Violence," "Match Point," "Walk the Line"

Best Director:
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"
Paul Haggis, "Crash"
George Clooney, "Good Night and Good Luck"
David Cronenberg, "A History of Violence"
Steven Spielberg, "Munich"
Dark Horses: Woody Allen ("Match Point"), Bennett Miller ("Capote")

Best Actor:
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"
Terrence Howard, "Hustle and Flow"
Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"
David Strathairn, "Good Night and Good Luck"
Dark Horses: Jeff Daniels ("The Squid and the Whale") Ralph Fiennes ("Constant Gardener"), Viggo Mortensen ("History of Violence")

Best Actress:
Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"
Keira Knightley, "Pride and Prejudice"
Charlize Theron, "North Country"
Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
Dark Horses: Joan Allen ("The Upside of Anger"), Maria Bello ("History of Violence"), Ziyi Zhang ("Memories of a Geisha")

Best Supporting Actor:
George Clooney, "Syriana"
Matt Dillon, "Crash"
Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"
Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"
Frank Langella, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Dark Horses: Terrence Howard ("Crash"), Bob Hoskins ("Mrs. Henderson Presents")

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, "Junebug"
Maria Bello, "A History of Violence"
Catherine Keener, "Capote"
Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"
Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain"
Dark Horses: Scarlett Johansson ("Match Point"), Frances McDormand ("North Country"), Shirley MacLaine ("In Her Shoes")

I'll post predictions on the other nominees later, but now I have to run to the opening-day show of "Big Momma's House 2," the sort of movie they don't, uh, screen for critics. From the sublime to the ridiculous, I guess.