Early Golden Globes handicapping

Best Motion Picture, Drama
"Babel"
"Bobby"
"The Departed"
"Little Children"
"The Queen"

What's "Bobby" doing here? A sympathy vote for Emilio Estevez, honoring a nice guy who made a terrible movie. Glad to see "Little Children" get a nod, but this really comes down to a tussle between "Babel" and "The Departed" -- i.e., between a global artistic statement and a damn good genre movie. Not much of a contest, eh?

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Dame Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Sherrybaby"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"

So someone did see "Sherrybaby." Wasn't me, but now I and a lot of others will have some screenin' to do. Personally, my favorites in this category are Dench and Winslet, but Mirren is probably unstoppable.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith. "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Leo's two cancel each other out, leaving the field open to the sentimental favorite, O'Toole, who actually deserves it.

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
"Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"
"The Devil Wears Prada"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Thank You For Smoking"

Tough one. "Borat" deserves it but is too controversial -- and it'll lose the Kazakh and Romanian journalists' votes. "Little Miss Sunshine" has a lot of goodwill behind it. But there are four comedies and one musical here, so only one place for musical fans to vote. "Dreamgirls" takes it.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Annette Bening, "Running with Scissors"
Toni Collette, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Beyonce Knowles, "Dreamgirls"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Renee Zellweger, "Miss Potter"

Streep, no contest. Collette and especially Bening are deserving, Beyonce should be grateful she's even here. And Zellweger? I've seen the movie and can incontestably say she deserves an award for best performance as a cherry tomato with the squints.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Sacha Baron Cohen, "Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"
Johnny Depp, "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
Aaron Eckhart, "Thank You For Smoking"
Chiwetel Ejiofor, "Kinky Boots"
Will Ferrell, "Stranger Than Fiction"

Depp will probably get it, but -- admit it -- it's the laziest performance of the bunch, one that would be an act of contempt coming from any other actor. Sacha deserves it, if only for the amazing control it took to maintain his character in the real world.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Emily Blunt, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"

Hudson, in a walk. The others are all eminently deserving, though, and Blanchett is outstanding, especially when you consider the variety of her work in this, "Babel," and "The Good German."

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Ben Affleck, "Hollywoodland"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Jack Nicholson, "The Departed"
Brad Pitt, "Babel"
Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed"

My heart says Marky Mark, my brain tells me Brad.

Best Foreign Language Film
"Apocalypto"
"Letters from Iwo Jima"
"Lives of Others"
"Pan's Labyrinth"
"Volver"

It's the only place they can honor Eastwood -- they can't not give it to Marty this time -- but "Pan's Labyrinth" probably deserves it. Personally, I kind of begrudge Eastwood and Gibson taking up slots that should go to less-heralded directors and films.

Best Director
Clint Eastwood, "Flags of Our Fathers"
Clint Eastwood, "Letters from Iwo Jima"
Stephen Frears, "The Queen"
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel"
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"

Clint's two should cancel each other out, leaving Inarritu as the only real competition for Scorsese. Having said that, and as much as I love "The Departed," "Letters from Iwo Jima" may in fact be the best-made movie on this list.

Best Screenplay
Guillermo Arriaga, "Babel"
Todd Field and Tom Perrotta, "Little Children"
Patrick Marber, "Notes on a Scandal"
William Monahan, "The Departed"
Peter Morgan, "The Queen"

Another tough one, with "the Departed" and "Babel" duking it out and possibly letting one of the others slip through. They're all tremendous scripts.

Best Original Score
Alexandre Desplat, "The Painted Veil"
Clint Mansell, "The Fountain"
Gustavo Santaolalla, "Babel"
Carlo Siliotto, "Nomad"
Hans Zimmer, "The Da Vinci Code"

Huh? What's "Nomad"? Oh, it's a Kazakh epic -- no, really -- that the Weinsteins are distributing in early 2007, according to IMDb. Sounds like someone in the Hollywood Foreign Press Association owed someone else some favors. Anyway, Santoaolalla will probably win for "Babel," and good for him, but I saw "Painted Veil" last week and can't get Desplat's haunting score out of my head.

Best Original Song
"A Father's Way," from "The Pursuit of Happyness"
"Listen," from "Dreamgirls"
"Never Gonna Break My Faith," from "Bobby"
"The Song of the Heart," from "Happy Feet"
"Try Not to Remember," from "Home of the Brave"

A death-match between Beyonce ("Dreamgirls") and Prince ("Happy Feet"). Don't bet against the little purple guy.

Best Animated Feature
"Cars"
"Happy Feet"
"Monster House"

"Happy Feet" takes it. Where's "A Scanner Darkly" or "Renaissance"? Oh, right, animation is just for children.