More than for any Oscar year in recent memory, your 2008 guesses are as good as ours. Oh, there are the locks: Daniel Day-Lewis for best actor, Javier Bardem for best supporting actor, Julie Christie (probably) for best actress. Other than that, it's as much a flip of the coin as anything Anton Chigurh wagered. Why? Because A) this is a year without a juggernaut a la "Titanic" or even "The Departed." And B) the two most nominated films are dark twins, "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood."
Then there are the spoilers: the glib, trenchant "Juno," Marion Cotillard transforming herself into a bent Edith Piaf, Ruby Dee splitting the difference between Amy Ryan and Cate Blanchett and possibly waltzing off with her first Oscar (and don't tell us she isn't overdue).
So take the following predictions as a rough guide, and trust your instincts. All of us, critics and paying audiences alike, were feeling our way in the dark last year. That's why the spotlight's so evenly spread around. —Ty Burr
TY BURR
BEST PICTURE
Will Win: "No Country for Old Men"*
Should Win: "There Will Be Blood"*
Was Robbed: "I'm Not There"
Shouldn't Be Here: "Atonement"
Has the "Country" momentum crested? Will there be "Blood" on the Kodak Pavilion stage? Both are deserving; if there's a split, look for a freak "Juno" win. And if enough voters are turned off by weirdness and gore, look for "Atonement" to sneak by. (*Either should win.)
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Was Robbed: Todd Haynes, "I'm Not There"
Shouldn't Be Here: Jason Reitman, "Juno"
The mavericks have finally climbed out of the best original screenplay ghetto. Regardless of who wins, both the Coens and Anderson are officially now the wave of Hollywood's future. That said, as the directors go, so goes the Academy, and the DGA went with the Coens.
BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Was Robbed: No one
Shouldn't Be Here: Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah"
Day-Lewis is as sure a bet as exists this year, which is a shame, since there isn't an unworthy performance in the category. Although I'd happily switch out "Elah" Tommy Lee for "No Country" Tommy Lee, regardless of actual screen time.
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Julie Christie, "Away From Her"
Should Win: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie En Rose"
Was Robbed: Amy Adams, "Enchanted"
Shouldn't Be Here: Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Conventional wisdom says Christie and maybe conventional wisdom is right. It's a tough category nevertheless. Cotillard has the showiest role, Linney is much-loved, and Page is the new Bright Young Thing. Only Blanchett's fine work in a tired film seems misplaced.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Should Win: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Was Robbed: Max Von Sydow, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Shouldn't Be Here: Hal Holbrook, "Into The Wild"
Bardem is the deserving front-runner, but voters may throw it to Hoffman for his 2007 body of work, or to Holbrook for sentimental reasons (it's an excellent performance, but Von Sydow's is indelible), or to Affleck. Nahh, it's Bardem's.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Should Win: Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Was Robbed: Taraji P. Henson, "Talk To Me"
Shouldn't Be Here: Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
I'll go out on a limb here and say Dee gets the beloved-institution vote in this famously unpredictable category, no matter how brief her onscreen time is. If that's too risky for your ballot, go with Blanchett, then Ryan, then Swinton. Not risky enough? Go with Ronan.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Diablo Cody, "Juno"
Should Win: Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Cody is this year's model and she's everywhere - almost (but not quite) to the point of Diablo-fatigue. Her "Juno" script is glittering and wonderful and a little too breezy; "Clayton," by contrast, is the work of a mature writer operating at peak powers.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
The Coens stuck so closely to the words and deeds of Cormac McCarthy's novel that they didn't adapt it so much as transpose it. Anderson plundered Upton Sinclair's "Oil!," took what he wanted, and came up with something fresh. Which deserves this award?
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: "No End in Sight"
Should Win: "No End in Sight"
A tough category. The Academy may focus on Iraq, but from which angle: policy ("No End"), the soldiers' experience ("Operation Homecoming"), or the use of torture ("Taxi")? Voters may just go with the feel-good "War/Dance" or give it to Moore again.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will Win: "Ratatouille"
Should Win: "Persepolis"
Once again, a showdown between gleaming
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: "The Counterfeiters," Austria
Should Win: "4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days," Romania
Another headscratcher. "Counterfeiters," about Jewish con artists forced to create bogus British pounds for the Third Reich, stands as good a chance as any. In a rationally organized contest, "4 Months" would be nominated and win.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: "Falling Slowly," Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova, "Once"
Should Win: "Falling Slowly," Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova, "Once"
Three songs from "Enchanted" could cancel each other out, leaving the soaring alt-hit from "Once" and the barely heard song from "August Rush." No contest.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: Dario Marinelli, "Atonement"
Should Win: Dario Marinelli, "Atonement"
Four relative Oscar newcomers and James Newton Howard, who has been nominated six previous times and never won. Won't happen tonight, either - Marinelli's much-admired score was a character in its own right.
BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: Christopher Rouse, "The Bourne Ultimatum"
Should Win: Juliette Welfing, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Barring a "No Country" sweep, Rouse's frenetic work for the final "Bourne" film should take the prize. Welfing stitched the floating image-world of "Diving Bell" into a cohesive whole.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: "No Country for Old Men"
Should Win: "There Will Be Blood"
(or the other way around)
Another probable "No Country" win, but if Deakins's two nominations cancel each other out, Robert Elswit could win for "Blood." Either's fine by me.
BEST MAKEUP
Will Win: "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
Should Win: "La Vie en Rose"
BEST ART DIRECTION
Will Win: "Atonement"
Should Win: "There Will Be Blood"
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Should Win: "Across the Universe"
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Will Win: "My Love"
Should Win: "My Love"
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Will Win: "At Night"
Should Win: "The Tonto Woman"
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Will Win: "Sari's Mother"
Should Win: "La Corona"
BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: "Transformers"
Should Win: "No Country for Old Men"
BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: "Transformers"
Should Win: "The Bourne Ultimatum"
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: "Transformers"
Should Win: "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
WESLEY MORRIS
BEST PICTURE
Will Win: "Juno"
Should Win: "There Will Be Blood"
Was Robbed: "4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days"
Shouldn't Be Here: "Atonement"
A category with art, real and bogus. The winner is almost anybody's guess. "No Country for Old Men" is the likely recipient. But maybe all the blood, evil, and downbeat finales will make the feel-good comedy about the pregnant teen feel that much better.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Was Robbed: David Fincher, "Zodiac"
Shouldn't Be Here: Jason Reitman, "Juno"
Anderson built a handmade kind of western that doubles as a spectacle of lunacy. But voters will probably find his kingly talent objectionable for his age (he's 37) and go with the Coens' transition from cartoon formalism to graphic-novel soul.
BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Was Robbed: Ethan Hawke, "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
Shouldn't Be Here: George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
The singing serial killer, the stressed-out lawyer, the crazy oil man, the sneering mobster, the cranky Army father: Welcome to the house of mirth! Good as everybody else is (although Clooney seemed miscast to me), the oil man wins.
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Ellen Page, "Juno"
Should Win: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie En Rose"
Was Robbed: Amy Adams, "Enchanted"
Shouldn't Be Here: Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Blanchett was fine in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age," but this was a lazy nomination. Page the whippersnapper might trump the oldsters rooting for Christie's emotional intelligence. Of course, Cotillard doesn't just reincarnate Edith Piaf, she invents her.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Should Win: Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Was Robbed: Kene Holliday, "Great World of Sound"
Shouldn't Be Here: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
A perfect category. But shouldn't Bardem be in the lead actor category? His character isn't just plot garnish - he's the movie's evil engine. Affleck, though, is something else, lurking in the background for about two hours, then ferociously putting that movie in his pocket.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Should Win: Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Was Robbed: Patricia Clarkson, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Shouldn't Be Here: Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement"
"All hail Ruby Dee." Her nomination is logical (she was the best thing in the movie) and sentimental (she's 83). Blanchett, Ryan, and Swinton have all been shown movie-critic love. Dee is a case of Hollywood's taking matters into its own hands.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: Diablo Cody, "Juno"
Should win: Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, and Jim Capobianco, "Ratatouille"
Another very good category, though not purely because of Cody's script, which often reads like a sitcom and lacks the balance of perception and wisdom in the "The Savages" and "Lars and the Real Girl." "Ratatouille," meanwhile, is the rare animated film whose beauty is evident on the page.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Joel and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
The Coens performed a relatively straightforward transfer of Cormac McCarthy's novel, keeping the essential structure but giving the sheriff final speech emotion mooring. But Anderson radically rebuilt Upton Sinclair's vastly populated tract of a novel as a one-man show.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: "No End in Sight"
Should Win: "Taxi to the Dark Side"
I love all the films in this group - except "War/Dance," which I like OK. But the two journalistic explorations of the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and their side effects are exceptional. "No End in Sight" investigates the astonishing manipulation that led America into Iraq. "Taxi," though, is about the corruption and evil that have festered since. It's a slightly more impossible movie to get over.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will win: "Ratatouille"
Should win: "Ratatouille"
I know it, and you know it: This category is a ghetto. "Ratatouille" and "Persepolis" should be up for awards in other categories. But here they are, duking it out, instead. The cooking-rat film is the more moving of the two, but
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Will win: "The Counterfeiters," Austria
Should win: "12," Russia
Without going into the nonsense of how this category is conducted, past math suggests a movie set in a concentration camp has pretty good odds of taking home a statue. Although Andrzej Wajda's "Katyn," about the notorious execution of soldiers at a Polish prison, has a pretty good shot, too.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: "Falling Slowly" from "Once"
Should win: "That's How You Know" from "Enchanted"
Maybe this "Enchanted" production number is no good without the actual production, but in the movie it's cheesily fantastic. But it'll get canceled out by the other two nominated songs from that movie, so that perfectly
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: Dario Marianelli, "Atonement"
Should win: Dario Marianelli, "Atonement"
The best thing about "Atonement" was being smacked upside the head by Marianelli's idea that a typewriter can serve as both a musical instrument and a weapon of minor destruction.
BEST FILM EDITING
Will win: Juliette Welfling, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Should win: Roderick Jaynes, "No Country for Old Men"
The talented French editor gets an Oscar for her blinks, stutters, and fades in and out. But it would be nice to see what happens somebody reads "Roderick Jaynes," since it's just a fancy way of saying "the Coen brothers."
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Janusz Kaminski, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Should win: Robert Elswit, "There Will Be Blood"
Roger Deakins has had the artistic year of his life. Nominated twice, Deakins was even more inspired on "The Assassination of Jesse James" than on the Coens' movie. But Elswit's camerawork was macho and astoundingly dynamic - up derricks, down wells, in the ocean - without ever opting for showiness. Which is why it won't win and Kaminski's p.o.v. photography will.
BEST MAKEUP
Will win: "Norbit"
Should win: "La Vie en Rose"
BEST ART DIRECTION
Will win: "Sweeney Todd"
Should win: "There Will Be Blood"
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Should win: "Across the Universe"
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Will win: "I Met the Walrus"
Should win: n/a
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
Will win: "The Tonto Woman"
Should win: n/a
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Will win: "Sari's Mother"
Should win: n/a
BEST SOUND MIXING
Will win: "The Bourne Ultimatum"
Should win: "Transformers"
BEST SOUND EDITING
Will win: "Ratatouille"
Should win: "Ratatouille"
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win: "Transformers"
Should win: "Transformers"
