boston.com Arts and Entertainment your connection to The Boston Globe

Predictions for who will win this year's wide-open Grammy race

Last year, predicting Grammy winners was easy -- just pick Norah Jones, then sit back and watch her collect trophies. But choosing winners this year is much harder. Do you go with new faces (Evanescence and 50 Cent), nostalgic names (Warren Zevon, Luther Vandross), a rap rebel (Eminem), or clever Britons (Radiohead, Coldplay)? Any choices will have to be made on a case-by-case basis. Keep in mind that Zevon never won a Grammy (he's due for a makeup call) and that Vandross has been recovering from a stroke, so he's a feel-good favorite, plus he made some fine music.

On to the ballots, please:

RECORD OF THE YEAR: Has there ever been stiffer competition in this category? There's Beyonce and Jay-Z's "Crazy in Love," the Black Eyed Peas and Justin Timberlake's "Where Is the Love," Coldplay's "Clocks," Eminem's "Lose Yourself," and OutKast's "Hey Ya!" The Beyonce/Jay-Z track is the sexiest of the bunch and sounded fabulous on the radio. Also, Beyonce just sang the National Anthem at the Super Bowl. She's America's darling right now, so she'll win.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR: OutKast against Missy Elliott, Evanescence, Justin Timberlake, and the White Stripes. It's hard to imagine OutKast's "Speakerboxxx/The Love Below" not winning this, because there was so much to digest there.

SONG OF THE YEAR: This is a songwriter award -- and here comes Zevon with "Keep Me in Your Heart." It's up against Vandross's enormously sympathetic "Dance With My Father," but Zevon will have the rock block behind him. Plus, his song was a definitive statement of courage in fighting the lung cancer that claimed his life. Other nominees:"Lose Yourself," "Beautiful" (performed by Christina Aguilera), and "I'm With You" (Avril Lavigne).

NEW ARTIST: A motley field with Evanescence, 50 Cent, Fountains of Wayne, Heather Headley, and Sean Paul. Grammy voters showed a love of hip-hop in this year's overall nominations, but old-school-inspired rockers Evanescence played to the mainstream, and that will prompt enough on-the-fence voters to give the group a victory here.

FEMALE POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE: Sarah McLachlan has won this twice, and she's up against a youth movement of Aguilera, Kelly Clarkson, Dido, and Lavigne. But Grammy voters have to go for new blood somewhere, so a good start is Aguilera's "Beautiful."

MALE POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE: Timberlake is the only young pup here, competing with George Harrison, Sting, Michael McDonald, and Zevon. Sting has won this award four times, so look for Zevon to get some due.

POP VOCAL ALBUM: Timberlake is too good to be shut out, so he'll nail this award for the acclaimed "Justified," topping entries from Aguilera and Harrison, among others.

TRADITIONAL POP ALBUM: Tony Bennett has won this seven times and will again for "A Wonderful World," his duet disc with k. d. lang. Rosemary Clooney's "The Last Concert" is the sentimental favorite, but that won't be enough.

FEMALE ROCK VOCAL PERFORMANCE: Another wide-open field with Lavigne, Michelle Branch, Pink, Bonnie Raitt, and Lucinda Williams. Williams has won this before and is back on top with the smoldering "Righteously."

MALE ROCK VOCAL PERFORMANCE: Dave Matthews's "Gravedigger" was a risk-taking record for him. If you heard it once, you remembered it. He should win, though he's up against Bob Dylan, Tom Waits, and David Bowie.

HARD ROCK PERFORMANCE: Contenders include Audioslave, Jane's Addiction, and Boston's Godsmack, but go with Audioslave's "Like a Stone." It singlehandedly revived rock radio.

METAL PERFORMANCE: On the top of the mountain again is Metallica, this time for "St. Anger."

ROCK ALBUM: The Foo Fighters have been Grammy faves (with three previous wins), and they look good here with "One by One," beating out close competition from Audioslave, Evanescence, and matchbox twenty.

ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM: The White Stripes go head to head with Radiohead, but the latter triumphs with "Hail to the Thief."

FEMALE R&B VOCAL PERFORMANCE: Beyonce wins again, but in a close call, with Mary J. Blige, Heather Headley, Ashanti, and Erykah Badu.

MALE R&B VOCAL PERFORMANCE: All ears on Vandross and his "Dance With My Father."

URBAN/ALTERNATIVE PERFORMANCE: OutKast's "Hey Ya!" rules, though Kelis's "Milkshake" won't trail by much.

R&B SONG: Another nod for Beyonce ("Crazy in Love").

R&B ALBUM: Gift-wrap another trophy for Vandross for "Dance With My Father."

FEMALE RAP SOLO PERFORMANCE: Elliott's street-smart "Work It" fired up hormones everywhere. She'll best a field that features Queen Latifah, Da Brat, Lil' Kim, and MC Lyte.

MALE RAP SOLO PERFORMANCE: Eminem goes against the red-hot 50 Cent, but you've got to like Eminem's chances with "Lose Yourself," a track from his movie, "8 Mile."

RAP SONG: Eminem again with "Lose Yourself."

RAP ALBUM: OutKast continues to romp with "Speakerboxxx/The Love Below."

FEMALE COUNTRY PERFORMANCE: On one side is June Carter Cash and Dolly Parton, the other Shania Twain, Martina McBride, and Patty Loveless. A tough matchup, but a gut call is McBride's "This One's for the Girls."

MALE COUNTRY PERFORMANCE: Vince Gill's ode to growing old in Nashville, "Next Big Thing," is the likely choice. He has already won 15 Grammys, so he's Mr. Reliable.

BLUEGRASS ALBUM: It's some kind of law that Alison Krauss & Union Station (nominated this year for a live album) take this home.

CONTEMPORARY FOLK ALBUM: Not sure what Zevon's "The Wind" is doing in this category, but it will win.

SALSA/MERENGUE ALBUM: The recently departed Celia Cruz will sway voters' hearts.

REGGAE ALBUM: Sean Paul's "Dutty Rock" rides a wave to the podium.

RELATED LINKS
GRAMMY WINNERS

ALBUM OF THE YEAR
"Speakerboxxx/The Love Below"
(OutKast)
RECORD OF THE YEAR
"Clocks"
(Coldplay)
SONG OF THE YEAR
"Dance With My Father"
(Richard Marx and Luther Vandross)
BEST NEW ARTIST
Evanescence
SEARCH THE ARCHIVES
 
Today (free)
Yesterday (free)
Past 30 days
Last 12 months
 Advanced search / Historic Archives