The Emmys' challenge

Still, Emmy voters need to stay clear about their purpose, which is to find and pay tribute to the finest that’s out there, even if that compromises the success of the telecast. If they lose sight of their goal, the Emmys will become another version of the People’s Choice Awards - and then fade away nonetheless. So in the spirit of keeping our eyes on the prizes, here’s a look at this year’s Emmy contest, which will be presented tomorrow night at 8 on Ch. 4 with Neil Patrick Harris as the host.

Should win: “Breaking Bad’’ was stunning this year. Each episode was a gorgeously cinematic gem, and the season-long arc built slowly and surely. And while “Dexter’’ and “House’’ had uneven seasons, at their best they were riveting. But “Mad Men,’’ last year’s winner, had a stunning second season, as the characters broke through to rage - in their bottled-up, early-1960s way, of course. The AMC drama should win.

Will win: “Mad Men’’ is the probable winner. The Academy of Television Arts & Sciences has a habit of repeating honors (see under: “NYPD Blue,’’ “The Sopranos,’’ “Frasier’’). If the voters want to honor “Lost,’’ it will probably be next season, the show’s last.

Missing in action: Do I need to spell it out? The letters are “FNL,’’ as in “Friday Night Lights.’’ The Academy’s consistent snubbing of this drama is a disgrace. Also in this category: the spectacularly written and acted “In Treatment’’ and the entertaining and shrewdly paced “True Blood.’’

Should win: For me, last year’s winner, Bryan Cranston, is the weakest link on “Breaking Bad.’’ He hasn’t found the through-line in his role as a family man who becomes a nasty drug kingpin. But I’m a huge fan of Gabriel Byrne in “In Treatment,’’ and this year his performance was particularly emotive. And I’d really love to see Michael C. Hall win, too. His work on “Dexter’’ is brilliant, as he walks the line between abhorrent and heroic with a tiny smirk playing around his lips. But: Hugh Laurie really, really ought win.

Will win: It’s amazing that Laurie hasn’t yet won this category, despite having been nominated three times. This year, I suspect, will be his moment, and the work is there to back up the honor. At this point, it’s too easy to take his remarkably kinetic energy and his subtle range for granted. If you watch Laurie’s eyes, House’s complicated and hidden emotional agendas are always lurking.

Missing in action: Kyle Chandler of “FNL,’’ of course.

Should win: This category is frustrating, because a few of the year’s best performances were omitted. But of those on the list, I’d love to see Elisabeth Moss get some love for her quiet, revelatory work as Peggy, a woman on the cusp.

Will win: Glenn Close will probably win again, for her flashy turn. She’s obvious and overly heated in this role, but she’s the kind of Hollywood movie star Emmy voters can’t resist.

Missing in action: I’m in the pro-January Jones camp, in that I think her shallow and bitter portrayal of Betty Draper is the result of subtle work. She deserves a nod, along with Chloe Sevigny of “Big Love’’ and Connie Britton of “Friday Night Lights,’’ and Anna Paquin as the sensible Sookie Stackhouse in “True Blood.’’ But it is Jill Scott, as the humane sleuth on “The No. 1 Ladies’ Detective Agency,’’ whose absence is most conspicuous here. She was a force of nature, as well as funny and endearing.

Should win: As the immature drug dealer suffering from low self-esteem, Aaron Paul was surprisingly sympathetic. His cartoon voice, so irritating at first, became increasingly agreeable as the season progressed and he became more humane. And Hope Davis also managed to make her character unexpectedly sympathetic, an embittered single lawyer with a painfully loyal daughter within.

Will win: I have a sneaking suspicion that the third nomination will be the charm for Michael Emerson. His performance is cleverly ambiguous, although increasingly frustrating as “Lost’’ heads to the finishing line. And Rose Byrne will win for her dynamic work opposite Close.

Missing in action: Wow - where to begin? She may belong in the comedy category, but Gabrielle Anwar is consistently strong as Fiona on “Burn Notice.’’ She’s an awesome action star, but also a temperamental spurned lover. Anna Gunn is endlessly touching on “Breaking Bad’’; Kevin McKidd brought much needed juice to both “Grey’s Anatomy’’ and costar Sandra Oh; Jennifer Carpenter was vulnerable and tough on “Dexter’’; Katey Sagal was a fierce mother on “Sons of Anarchy’’; and Vincent Kartheiser was pathetic as Pete Campbell dealing with his father’s death on “Mad Men.’’ And the “FNL’’ position in this category belongs to the hearthrobby Taylor Kitsch, who had no right to be so affecting as Tim Riggins.

Should win: “30 Rock,’’ of course. But I had to think for a moment, because “How I Met Your Mother’’ is such a winning show, even though it’s slightly less consistent with each passing season.

Will win: Duh. “30 Rock.’’ It’s a comedy about the industry that the industry can love, and it will take home a third statue.

Missing in action: I’d love to have seen a little-known HBO comedy called “Summer Heights High’’ on the list. This offbeat high school send-up was slick, nasty fun.

Should win: I have to say, Jim Parsons is extraordinary as Sheldon, the world’s biggest Poindexter. Yes, Alec Baldwin is brilliant as always, but Parsons deserves his moment. He delivers his lines like an old-fashioned news wire machine, but he’s all too human underneath his relentless logic. He makes Sheldon into more than just a lovable loser; he’s a condescending, irritating, self-absorbed, lovable loser.

Will win: Parsons will be one of the night’s new winners.

Missing in action: Chris Lilley for “Summer Heights High.’’ Lilley modeled the Tracey Ullman-styled tour de force, playing multiple lead roles in costume, and ran with it to new territory.

Should win: I always love Tina Fey. And the fact that her immense popularity hasn’t yet inspired a backlash is remarkable and points to her specialness. And Louis-Dreyfus, who, like Fey, has already won once for “Christine,’’ is a irresistible pro. But I can’t split the prize, so I’m going with Fey.

Will win: Fey will grab another statue, especially since voters will associate her with her unforgettable “Saturday Night Live’’ work as Sarah Palin, for which she already won a guest-actress statue. If there’s an upset, it will be by Collette, since her role as a woman with multiple personalities is so flashy.

Missing in action: My kneejerk reaction was to say Sarah Silverman - but she’s on the list this year, finally. Frankly, no big snubs in this category come to mind.

Should win: Go Kristen Wiig and Tracy Morgan. Wiig has been a breath of fresh air on “Saturday Night Live.’’ Love Krakowski, but Wiig has more range. And in his over-the-top performance, Morgan makes you want to give him the scenes so he doesn’t need to steal them. Harris is fantastic, but as “How I Met Your Mother’’ enters its fifth season, his Barney character has lost some freshness.

Will win: Harris is hosting, which will probably tip the award in his favor. And there will be no shame in that. And Amy Poehler, who got a lot of attention as Hillary Clinton, will win.

Missing in action: “Better Off Ted’’ is an almost-good sitcom, and may rise further when it returns midseason. But Portia de Rossi is already top-notch as the icy boss. Where are Wanda Sykes and Hamish Linklater from “The New Adventures of Old Christine’’? They are perfect foils for Louis-Dreyfus. And Jason Segel is a sweet lug on “How I Met Your Mother.’’

Should win: If I were basing my logic on injuries, I’d go with “Dancing With the Stars.’’ “Project Runway,’’ though, ought to get a prize, although it would be odd if the show won now. Lifetime would benefit further from Bravo’s loss.

Will win: Why will this year be any different from the past six? “The Amazing Race’’ will continue its amazing streak.

Missing in action: “The Biggest Loser’’ is inspirational, without being exploitive.

Matthew Gilbert can be reached at gilbert@globe.com. For more on TV, visit www.boston.com/ae/tv/blog/.