Voters of America, "Idol"-watchers, bear me out on my latest theory. (And listen now, before events make my ideas obsolete.) I'm here to declare that Hillary Clinton is the Carly Smithson of the presidential race.

Think about it: Both are experienced, talented, incredibly hardworking -- to the point that you can see the gears straining as they perform. Both approached their contests with a my-turn sense of entitlement. And yet both have been unable to fully connect with the audience, at least not broadly and consistently. Hillary and Carly are proof that popularity relies on something intangible, uncalculatable.

As for Barack Obama, the analogy isn't so easy this season. David Archuleta comes the closest, in the sense that he's a born-natural talent who likes to peddle hope and inspiration. But Obama doesn't project that dancing-bear sadness. Unlike Young David, he's here by choice.

TVwise, I've survived without "The Sopranos" pretty well, all in all. "Lost" and "BSG" have kept me happy. Still, I was cheered to see that David Chase is still flexing his creative muscles. He just signed a deal with Paramount Pictures to write, direct and produce a drama, which will be his first feature film. (The head of Paramount is Brad Grey, Chase's "Sopranos" producing partner.) Nice news...but couldn't it be a TV series instead?

Since my mind is twisted up into a pretzel shape after watching last night's "Lost" -- and since I know there are frame-freezers and blog-readers among you -- I will ask a series of questions after the jump. With my initial answers, but I'm easy to persuade...

Come chat about all things TV, from the mysteries of "Lost" to the big gay wedding on "Brothers & Sisters" scheduled for this Sunday night.The link to the chat is here.

Have you ever seen an "Idol" cast-off who seemed happier, and more relieved, than tonight's eliminee? And can you imagine any other "Idol" cast-off who would willingly admit a fear of learning three songs in six days? And am I giving too much away? Alas. Let's continue after the jump.

Or, rather, lovers of "Family Guy." ("American Dad" counts, too.) I'm working on a story for Ye Olde Paper Globe about the success of the Fox cartoons, which have just turned Connecticut-raised Seth MacFarlane into TV's richest impresario. So if you have deep thoughts about why MacFarlane's humor speaks to you -- and whether the "South Park" guys have been unfair -- please, comment away. Or, better yet, e-mail me at weiss@globe.com.

In which we continue our discussion about what (if anything) Jason Castro is thinking, how Syesha's personal growth connects to the civil rights era, and whether malted vanilla ice cream is as good as I think. Come join us here.

News broke between the time I filed today's review of National Geographic's "Inside a Cult," which is here, and tonight's airing of the documentary.

"Inside a Cult" is a profile of a group of people in New Mexico who follow a self-styled messiah named Michael Travesser (photo above). Yesterday, police arrested Travesser -- whose real name is Wayne Bent -- on charges of having sexual contact with a minor and contributing to the deliquency of a minor. The CNN news story about the arrest, which also documents the removal of three children from the cult's compound, Strong City, is here.

In the hourlong documentary, tonight at 10, Travesser talks about sleeping with seven naked virgins, but he denies performing any sexual acts with them, even after one of the girls threatened to take her own life if he wouldn't have sex with her. The Strong City website, here, contains a number of blog entries defending Travesser and paralleling his arrest with the trials of Jesus Christ. In one entry, dated Monday, May 5, Travesser himself writes:

"It was the same for Jesus. Jesus had not committed any crimes, so the authorities had to invent some crimes to crucify him over. It is the same for me also. I have committed no crimes, but many crimes are being imagined and concocted in the minds of men to try and kill me again. Men are so stupid, though, for they do not know that they cannot kill Spirit. They think if they get to kill my body it will end it. I laugh long and hard over this. My Spirit cannot be killed by dogs and snakes or anything else. ...But these things always accompany the appearing of Messiah. Any Messiah is instantly hated by all but the Sons of God."

I recommend that you watch "Inside a Cult" tonight, if you have an interest in the psychology of cults and apocalyptic thinking. The documentary doesn't go deep, but it gets up-close enough to the Strong City members and their leader to give you the full-on willies. Of course, all this attention may be satisfying to Travesser and his people; why else would they have agreed to grant the filmmakers access in the first place if they weren't drawn to the limelight?

All right, Jason Castro lovers, devotees of the dreds and the glazed-over gaze. Look me in the eye -- in an Internet sense -- and tell me you're not just a wee bit ashamed that he's lasted this long. Last year, everyone predicted the apocalypse because Sanjaya survived a few weeks. And while Jason is more talented than Sanjaya -- he can carry a tune, most of the time, and he doesn't look like a kid at a fifth-grade talent show -- he also quite clearly doesn't belong. Does Jason suffer because he's truly a diamond in the rough, without the stage experience of his competitors? Or because he absolutely doesn't care? I'm voting a combination of the two, but it isn't fun to watch.

In fact, there was nothing especially fun about watching the final four perform songs from the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame's "500 Songs That Shaped Rock 'n Roll" Maybe that's too crotchety and unfair. But I've been waiting for someone to put forth a truly transcendent, give-me-goosebumps performance, and tonight, once again, it didn't happen. In fact, to me, the most interesting performance of the night came from Paula, who has returned from her time travels and seemed more fervent than usual about making the contestants feel good about themselves. Maybe because there was, otherwise, so little to gush about. Instead, we got...

David Cook. You've got to admit, the stylists have done a beautiful job on this guy. It's hard to even remember the early comb-over. He's got confidence, too, which I know some interpret as arrogance, but which I find refreshing on a season when so many contestants have sobbed or whined or looked deathly afraid. I agree with the judges that his "Hungry Like the Wolf" was nothing special. I was much happier when I saw that he was going to attempt "Baba O'Riley." And once he took off into the upper register, it was very good. Just not quite goosebump good. And was it me, or did the end seem sort of weirdly cut off?

Syesha. Ever since Andrew Lloyd Webber week, she's been getting her groove on, and I was happy to see her throw herself into another performance -- particularly her energetic version of "Proud Mary." And yet. There's something about Syesha's voice, skilled as it is, that just doesn't thrill me. It's like I'm craving a Fantasia moment that I'm never going to get. And I did have an issue with her taped intro to "A Change is Gonna Come," in which she explained that the song was released during the Civil Rights era, "a pivotal time in history," and now she was singing it at "a pivotal time in my life," because, you know, she's now in the American Idol top four. Syesha. I know it's easy to get caught up in the swirl of this stuff, but not everything is about you.

Jason. I don't think I've ever seen this before: Simon and Randy actually getting mad at a contestant because he was so bad. Even Ryan couldn't help but comment on it. And as I mentioned above, I was kind of irritated, too. In addition to feeling like I wanted to pull out my hair, and much of his, I came up with a couple of questions: Why did he need to hold a guitar during "I Shot the Sheriff"? And of all of the lyrics to forget, "Jingle jangle morning"? Really? Imagine the last couple of weeks with Michael Johns or Carly Smithson in Jason's place, and join me in shedding a small tear of regret.

David Archuleta. Watching him this week, I finally realized what he reminds me of: Young Michael Jackson -- bear with me here -- in "The Jacksons: An American Dream," that Jackson 5 movie that used to play in a continuous loop on MTV. I'm not saying that Young David has the natural talent of Young Michael -- he's good, but no one's that good. But there's that same palpable sense of melancholy, of childhood lost to performance. And the fact that, no matter how well he sings, when he gets praise from the judges, he always looks relieved that no one's going to hit him with a stick. I liked his "Stand By Me" better than his "Love Me Tender," I think. He's a shoo-in for the finals. But I really wish he could just go to his prom.

I've been a big fan of Sarah Chalke ever since she showed up as the second Becky on "Roseanne." And I am pleased by the way she fits in on "How I Met Your Mother," so pleased, in fact, that I'd rather see her on this show than on "Scrubs" right now.

I feel a little blasphemous saying that, because I have been such a huge "Scrubs" supporter for so long, and she is an important part of that show's amazing ensemble. But "Scrubs" has run out of steam, as even the best series do after seven seasons, while "HIMYM" is still ascendant. I've already expressed my mixed feelings here about the fact that "Scrubs" is said to be returning for an eighth season on ABC.

Last night on "HIMYM," Chalke quickly reestablished her chemistry with Josh Radnor's Ted, which was important since we've only seen them together once and yet they've supposedly been dating for months. And Will Forte was a big plus as Barney's rebound bro, his wingman in training. I do hope "HIMYM" isn't going the guest-star-addiction route of "Will & Grace," especially with Britney Spears returning next week, but I also enjoyed last night's visitors immensely. From Lily's earthquake experience to Marshall's grief over Nell Carter, the episode was a breeze.

I'm back, and so it TV. It is nice indeed to return from a week off just as May sweeps is beginning, and there are new episodes everywhere. This is what series TV should be: a whole bunch of fresh material, unfolding forward, with the option to catch up online or via a DVR if needed.

Seriously, good riddance to the strike-related dry period (although it does continue to dog HBO, whose big shows won't be back until the fall).

A question on behalf of a reader: Anyone know of a restaurant or bar in downtown Boston that screens "American Idol" on Tuesday nights? (It's not inconceivable; once I visited a North End bar that hosted weekly gatherings for "The Sopranos.") If so, comment away...

I love how the Red Sox are so often used to signify time in "Lost." When Jack looks at a headline that says, "Yankees bludgeon Red Sox in series sweep" -- and then mutters "A-Rod" under his breath -- we know we're in the midst of a flash-forward. And we know it's going to be some kind of nightmare.

To minimize spoilers, I'll save the rest of my giddy thoughts about this week's "Lost" for after the jump.

Yes, we'll talk about the elimination after the jump. But first: Simon reconnects with his first kiss? That was actually kind of cute. On the other hand, I was disappointed that the "Idol" producers didn't honestly acknowledge last night's Grand Paula Gaffe. Ryan only referred to unspecified "rumors" about Paula that he said weren't true, leaving us to wonder...which rumors, exactly? That she was under the influence? That she couldn't count? That she was leaving the show? (I hadn't heard that one.) That she had some kind of "Lost"-style time travel issue, and thus didn't realize she wasn't watching the dress rehearsal?

As today's "Idol" chat made clear, there are some conspiracy theories floating around about pre-scripted judges' comments and producers' heavy hands. I'm not inclined to believe them. I do know that the judges can, and often do, watch the dress rehearsals, and that they sometimes start forming their comments ahead of the live show. Doesn't bother me, so long as they actually watch the performances. And I do not subscribe to the notion that someone is writing out incoherent sentences for Paula to read out loud. I believe that her thoughts, rainbow-filled and psychedelic as they are, are purely her own.

Oh, whatever. Water under the bridge. And speaking of waterworks...

Come talk about all things "Idol" here. And I'll offer up some fodder for conversation. As my colleague Janice Page points out, Paula's mental lapse last night thrust a big fact into the spotlight: "American Idol" has never been a purely live, spontaneous affair. Over the years, I've seen people try to make a scandal out of the fact that the clips at the end of the show come from the dress rehearsals, not the performances. And as we saw last night, the judges do get a look at those dress rehearsals, and are able to start forming their opinions before the live show even begins.

Personally, I don't mind. Putting together a live show with this many moving parts is a pretty big endeavor, and I can't imagine how hard it would be to pull performance clips together so quickly. As for the judges' previews, as long as they also listen carefully to the live performances -- with an ear out for pitchiness, etc., etc. -- I don't mind that they get a sneak peek. Because this is live TV, and things need to move along quickly, it doesn't hurt that some of their thoughts are collected ahead of time. Think about how much less cogent Paula would be if she were truly speaking off the cuff. (Shudder.)

A couple of admissions, as we launch into the "American Idol" final five: 1) I miss Carly, and 2) I'm officially bored. Except for when Paula talks. When Paula talks, I'm very entertained. Did you catch the reactions, mid-show, as she launched into her treatise on Jason's imaginary second song? Ryan looked offstage, as if begging for guidance. Simon looked like he was going to hug somebody. Even the audience started to chuckle. "This is hard!" Paula yelled. Yes, counting to five is tough. Just ask some of our politicians.

As for Neil Diamond, he's no Andrew Lloyd Webber, as far as mentors go. He was all sunshine and happy thoughts tonight; the only concrete advice we saw was his suggestion that Brooke change "New York" to "Arizona" in "I Am...I Said." I'm not sure that was necessarily wise. But I'll get back to it in a bit...

Jason Castro. I think it's pretty clear by now that this guy, stoner-cutie that he happens to be, is not capable of anything more than he's been doing: singing flat, mellow versions of whatever song he happens to find the sheet music for. I guess you could call that "making it his own," but it's really more like "running another ditty through the bland-o-meter." Are we ready to admit that his triumphant "Hallelujah" was really about the song, and not about Jason at all?

David Cook. My favorite, he remains. And I think he was brilliant to choose a couple of lesser-known Neil Diamond songs, which he could present as modern-ish rockers without having to borrow something else from Chris Cornell. I suppose I agree with the judges that his second song was better than his first, but I liked them both. And I find that he's the only remaining contestant who truly puts it on the line when he sings - pushes his voice, pushes his emotions. (David Archuleta can sound emotional, too, but it always feel robotic to me: calculated and a little bit too perfect.)

Brooke White. Argh. "I'm A Believer" is one of my favorite songs of all time, and while I wouldn't necessarily call her version of it "a nightmare," it certainly wasn't good. Really, it showed off all of her weaknesses as an artist: She doesn't have a very big vocal range, and she absolutely cannot project anything but melancholy. Her happy songs are always near-disasters. So yes, she did a much better job with her melancholy piano version of "I Am...I Said," but how believable was it, really? After all, she kept smiling about how weird it was to sing about Arizona having a shore.

David Archuleta. Ah, America's favorite beautifully-singing little robot. I did not care at all for his soft-rock version of the Red Sox Nation Theme Song, particularly since he wasted little time before launching into the cheesetastic "hands...touching hands" part. And yes, I agree with Simon that "America" was a brilliant choice, though he doesn't need saving like Kristy Lee Cook. Also, I give him extra-super bonus points for not singing "Turn On Your Heartlight."

Syesha Mercado. As soon as she started her barefoot version "Hello Again," my heart sank: So soon, we're back to the wannabe diva stuff? But she redeemed herself with her girl-band take on "Thank the Lord for the Night Time." And, unlike Brooke, she's able to sing an upbeat song and look like she's actually having fun. Yeah, I'll agree with Simon that it wasn't transcendent. But it made Jason Castro look like the cute little amateur he is. If she goes before he does this week, I'm going to make my cat wear a little black armband.

Let's talk about it all at Wednesday's chat, at 1 p.m. on Boston.com. Meantime, as always, I look forward to the comments...

A fairly extraordinary moment on live TV today, as Barack Obama gives a rare press conference to denounce his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. The man who has struggled for months to give a nuanced explanation of his relationship with Wright has now distanced himself completely. And Obama sounded legitimately angry -- in his muted way -- about Wright's recent, incendiary TV tour.

Over on MSNBC, Chris Matthews is predicting that we'll hear a rebuttal from Wright. "He will keep fighting this," Matthews says. Stay tuned. In other campaign-TV news, Hillary Clinton will make her first-ever appearance on Fox News's "The O'Reilly Factor." The two-part interview will air on Wednesday and Thursday on 8 p.m.

Well, that was quite a "How I Met Your Mother" twistaroo, wasn't it? So that goat was eating Robin's washcloth during Ted's 30th birthday party...except that Future Ted remembered that Robin wasn't living at Ted's apartment on his 30th birthday...and that the goat was actually eating Robin's washcloth on Ted's 31st birthday...which means, by my calculations...

That means Stella may well be a temporary fling, and not The Mother (which makes sense, since Sarah Chalke will be busy doing "Scrubs" on ABC next year). It means the producers are confident they'll get another season to play with the Ted-Robin thing, or that they're willing to flash way forward someday to tell us who the mother is. Or it just means Robin is going to be Ted's platonic roommate a year from now, when Marshall and Lily finally move to Dowisetrepla. Anything's possible.

And what about Barney? Will he be banished from the band of bros? Or will he find a way to...wait for it...awesomely redeem himself? I hope so - though I have to say, I was impressed by the dramatic turns from Josh Radnor and Neil Patrick Harris, who projected real sadness about the rift in the Ted-Barney friendship. This episode was deep, though not too deep to make a really bawdy joke about Ben Franklin and George Washington. (Ick.)

I was halfway off the grid last week, so I didn't get a chance to post on this massive As The World Turns development: After a long delay, Luke and Noah -- the gay couple I wrote about last month -- finally kissed last week. Fans of the couple are thrilled. The American Family Association, not so much. No official boycott yet, but the group has sent supporters an "action alert," urging them to contact sponsor Procter & Gamble and register their disapproval.

Oh me, oh my. After seeing my list of "TV Tailspins," a friend sent me this FANTASTIC clip from an old episode of "Batman." Wow. It is truly a thing of TV beauty.