'Idol:' Two to go

Kris beats Danny! Kris beats Danny! Adam is safe! Adam is safe!

But we're not here to gloat or do a victory jig. We're here to handicap. Ryan made a point of saying that 1 million votes -- out of what, 88 million? -- separated the top two finalists, so we can't think that Adam is running away with this contest. He's got the judges behind him, and a lot of devoted fans, but he's polarizing. Very polarizing. Far more polarizing than, say, David Cook was last year. And if most Danny fans are also members of the Anyone-But-Adam club -- which is highly possible -- then things are looking good for Kris next week.

On the other hand, if more "Idol" voters choose their contestants performance-by-performance -- or see the finale as a way to reward a body of work across the course of the "Idol" season, or listen to the recommendations of Simon Cowell, then Adam has a shot.

By now, I think you know where I stand. I'm a big fan of Kris; I think he's one of the smartest "Idol" contestants I've ever seen, and his "Heartless" was one of those risks that paid off beautifully. I especially appreciate what he proves about "Idol," not that it hasn't been proven before: this isn't a singing competition, but a contest to find the best entertainer. Kris doesn't have Danny's voice, but he's been more entertaining all season.

But Adam is an entertainer on a different level from either of them -- and from anyone else I've seen on "Idol" before. I respect that lots of people don't like his singing style, filled with belted-out high notes and vocal gymnastics. But even those people, I hope, can appreciate how comfortable he is onstage, how much energy he lays out every week, and how smart he's been with his song choices. Based on sheer talent and star quality, this should be his to lose. But that doesn't mean he will win.