PAKISTAN'S POLITICAL crisis seems to be hurtling toward a resolution - of one sort or another. More and more politicians are being detained. General Pervez Musharraf did accede to the Bush administration's request that he permit parliamentary elections in January, yet he refuses to lift the state of emergency or to reinstate the Supreme Court justices whom he sacked. And former prime minister Benazir Bhutto has openly begun to back away from the power-sharing deal she and Musharraf had been negotiating under American auspices.
Because Pakistan has nuclear weapons and harbors both Taliban and Al Qaeda jihadists, its political crisis cannot be a matter of indifference either to its neighbors or to its principal international backer, the United States. Pakistan has received more than $10 billion in aid from Washington since 2001, most of which went to that nation's military. Inevitably, donor and recipient have become entangled in their mutual dependence.
But blatant American meddling in Pakistan's drama could end up doing considerable harm to US security interests, while also discrediting the Pakistani political forces Washington may wish to help. There is some evidence that this is already happening.
Supporters of religious parties who join with secular parties to demonstrate against Musharraf have been shouting anti-American slogans. They are seizing on the general's vanishing popularity to argue that Pakistanis ought to direct their wrath not only at him, but also at the Uncle Sam who manipulates his puppet behind the scenes.
Bhutto seems to recognize that her political interest demands she keep her distance from Washington, even though she owes her homecoming after eight years in exile to a US-brokered deal between her and Musharraf on political cohabitation. As popular sentiment now turns against Musharraf and his dictatorial state of emergency, Bhutto is swimming with the current. By breaking her part of the tacit bargain with Musharraf and calling for his immediate resignation as president, she is not only freeing herself of any association with him; she is also repackaging herself as a democratic leader who is not in thrall to Musharraf's American sponsors.
At this treacherous point in Pakistan's power struggle, President Bush and his advisers should first do no harm. The last thing they should be doing is to declare their preferences in that power struggle - or to let it be known, off the record, that they are sounding out senior Pakistani generals about persuading Musharraf to step aside.
America should favor free and fair elections in Pakistan, the restoration of constitutional democracy, and the preservation of an independent press and judiciary. But trying to pick particular winners among candidates or parties would be a major mistake.
