THE LATEST National Intelligence Estimate of Iran's nuclear program is a welcome turnabout. A declassified summary of the estimate released Monday said that Iran ceased pursuing a covert nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003. Regardless of the spin President Bush and others may try to give this new assessment, there can be no doubt that it undercuts the argument for an urgent military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.
It is also good news that the intelligence community is not tailoring its assessments to the designs of policy makers; not cooking the books; and not hesitating to contradict its own previous judgments when new evidence comes to hand. Past efforts by the Bush administration to mold intelligence on Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction cast doubt on the competence and integrity of intelligence agencies, causing the American public and other countries to be wary of Washington's security warnings.
If Bush knew for several months about the intelligence establishment's revised view of Iran's nuclear program and nevertheless persisted in evoking an apocalyptic danger of a third world war, the administration's credibility with other governments will suffer another blow, and rightly so.
Bush said yesterday he was told in August that intelligence agencies had "some new information" about Iran's nuclear program but that the director of national intelligence, John McConnell, "didn't tell me what the information was." If this is really what happened, then either McConnell was remiss in not informing the commander in chief about such important new information, or Bush has established a new standard for presidential incuriosity.
The question of what Bush knew and when he knew it will not be overlooked by the allied governments of Britain, France, and Germany, or by permanent United Nations Security Council members Russia and China; they were all being lobbied this fall by the administration to impose a third round of tougher United Nations sanctions on Iran.
A positive sign is that Bush now calls the new intelligence estimate "a great discovery" that is "now part of our government policy." If this means no rush to military action and a serious effort to open up comprehensive negotiations with the Iranian regime that include regional security issues as well as the nuclear question, then Bush will be utilizing the intelligence community's "great discovery" in the right way.
The new assessment still foresees an Iranian ability to develop a nuclear weapon in about eight years. The soundest way to avoid that danger is to negotiate a deal that guarantees Iran a supply of low-enriched uranium for peaceful purposes, plus security cooperation, in return for a verifiable Iranian agreement not to obtain nuclear weapons.
