Lebanon at the edge
THE CAR-BOMB assassination Wednesday of General Francois Hajj, chief of operations for Lebanon's army, is being attributed to a variety of suspects. Ministers in the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, which is backed by Saudi Arabia, France, and the United States, blame Syria. Syria, while condemning the murder, blames Israel. Others point to Al Qaeda-inspired jihadists whom the army crushed last summer, in a vicious three-month campaign led by the slain General Hajj.
His murder, the ninth political assassination since the 2005 murder of former prime minister Rafik Hariri, highlights the fragility of the Lebanese state. There is widespread belief among Lebanese that outside forces have it in their power either to tear the country apart or preserve its unity.
Lately, there have been signs that initiatives involving Syria, the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and others might result in a tacit pact among the outsiders to let Lebanon solve its internal problems peacefully. The Bush administration's invitation to Syria to the recent Annapolis peace conference was one such sign. Back-channel explorations of an Israeli-Syrian peace track are another.
There are many good reasons to tamp down Mideast conflicts through diplomacy. Saving Lebanon as a rare multicultural society in the region is not the least of these.
The Hajj murder came as French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner was shuttling between the Siniora government and the pro-Syrian opposition that has been boycotting Parliament. The term of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud expired Nov. 23, and Kouchner is trying to foster an agreement on the parliamentary election of his successor.
An anti-Syrian governing coalition of Christians and Sunnis and a pro-Syrian opposition alliance of Christian and Shi'ite parties recently agreed to support the current army chief, Michel Suleiman, as successor to Lahoud. But Lebanon's constitution requires a two-year interlude before the army boss can assume the presidency, and the pro-Syrian alliance is refusing to vote for the needed constitutional amendment unless it receives enough cabinet posts to give it veto power over government decisions.
Whether or not Hajj's murder is related to this standoff - he was apolitical and on good terms with leaders in both camps - his murder, as well as the political backdrop, reveal a Lebanon teetering on the edge of an abyss.
Kouchner had been trying to avert a political deadlock, preserve Lebanon's unity, and prevent a replay of the disasters of the 1975-1990 civil war. This is an effort that deserves support from Washington, and the soundest way to help is for the administration to lend its backing to negotiations for an Israeli-Syrian peace agreement. The entire Middle East would benefit, and nobody more than the Lebanese. 