THE FIVE permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, along with Germany, agreed this week on a third, relatively mild round of sanctions on Iran if it goes on refusing to suspend its enrichment of uranium. These sanctions are the result of a compromise. China and Russia, major commercial partners of Iran, would sign on only for vigilant monitoring of Iranian financial and military institutions, not for the tough financial penalties sought by the Bush administration.
Although the terms hammered out by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov were not exactly what either party wanted, the agreed-upon limitations on export credits for Iran and business activities by Iranians linked to proliferation are more likely to work than either the American hard line or the soft line favored by China and Russia.
Without this third sanctions resolution from the Security Council, Iran's blustery president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, could go on pretending that Iran is fully complying with its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty - and that the rest of the world accepts his claim that Iran's nuclear file is closed. Conversely, if the United States had imposed its will, mandating severe financial penalties despite the recent National Intelligence Estimate's finding that Iran suspended work on designing a nuclear warhead in 2003, Ahmadinejad could argue that such sanctions are the pure product of the Great Satan's hostility to Iran.
The compromise sends an opportune message to the Iranian public and the regime. It tells the people of Iran that the outside world does not accept Ahmadinejad's propaganda line; that having hidden suspicious activities in its nuclear program for 18 years, Iran now must show good faith by suspending uranium enrichment while negotiating an agreement that guarantees it a supply of non-weapons-grade uranium for power generation.
Meanwhile, the new sanctions tell Iran's leaders that they are not fooling anybody in the international community, but also that the window remains open for a diplomatic deal. The mildness of the pending new sanctions ought to tell pragmatic figures in the Iranian hierarchy that they can have the foreign investment and technology they need if they come to the table and negotiate a realistic agreement. The fact that China and Russia are backing fresh sanctions should warn the pragmatists that true security for Iran requires an accord that prevents Iran from obtaining fissile material for nuclear weapons.
With parliamentary elections in Iran coming in March and Ahmadinejad being blamed for dozens of deaths due to a shortage of natural gas, this is the ideal time to inform Iranians that they need not go on suffering from his incompetence or his bravado.
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