IT WAS always a sure thing that Dmitry Medvedev, President Vladimir Putin's protégé and designated successor, would win Sunday's election for president. The new ruling class that has congealed around Putin took no chances. They disqualified Medvedev's most formidable challenger on the pretext that too many of his nominating signatures were forgeries. They used state-run television to wrap Medvedev in a cocoon of fawning coverage. They observed democratic formalities but drained them of any genuine popular sovereignty.
President Bush and his successor must have no illusions about the authoritarian state Putin and his entourage have created. It braids together political, corporate, and secret-police powers. The public has accepted this new order as a corrective to the chaos of the 1990s, when pensions and salaries went unpaid, the ruble collapsed, and well-connected insiders bought up Russia's most valuable energy assets at rigged auctions.
Medvedev's low-key manner may differ from Putin's swagger, but his stake in the Kremlin power system is just as great. He has served not only as Putin's first deputy prime minister but also as chairman of the board of the mammoth energy conglomerate, Gazprom. With Putin moving to the office of prime minister, there is even a chance he will remain the Kremlin's ultimate decider while Medvedev, his new title notwithstanding, continues to carry out his mentor's orders.
Whoever calls the shots will have to cope with serious challenges. To his credit, Medvedev has shown an awareness of the need to reverse Russia's demographic decline. Like a candidate in a real democracy, he has pledged to devote resources to prenatal care, create incentives for families with children, and improve Russia's woeful provision of medical care for children. Despite its windfall from high energy prices, Russia has a great need for foreign investment and, as an erstwhile law professor, Medvedev has to understand that without legal protections, foreign investors will not risk their money in Russia.
American policy makers need to find ways to cooperate with the Putin-Medvedev team without abandoning support for Russian democrats and human rights activists. This is doable; Russia and the United States share an interest in countering jihadist networks, preventing nuclear proliferation, and fostering global economic stability.
The Bush administration has too often alienated the Kremlin needlessly, as with its extension of a faulty missile defense system to Central Europe and its backing for Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia. The next US president would be wise to avoid unnecessary provocations of this sort and draw Russia into a true strategic partnership, even while recognizing that Russia's new rulers represent only themselves.
