LEGISLATORS WHOSE minds remain open to the potential benefits of building three resort casinos in Massachusetts should look carefully at a new study sponsored by the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce. Although the authors take no position on whether to bring casino gambling to Massachusetts, their data suggests that the Patrick administration has been right all along to press the proposal as a realistic means to create new jobs and tax revenue.
The findings of the independent study by UHY Advisors, a major accounting firm, squares with the administration's claims, with one notable exception. Governor Patrick predicted that his casino plan would create 30,000 construction jobs over a roughly three-year period. But the UHY study pegs that number at 10,000 to 11,500. Another expert estimated significantly fewer construction jobs - 4,000 to 5,000 - in a Globe report on Sunday.
But one optimistic finding in the study is the projection of $2.7 billion in gross gambling revenues by 2012. The Patrick administration usually cites a figure of $2 billion. If the higher UHY figure is sound, it could convince some lawmakers that Patrick's casino proposal is simply too lucrative to ignore.
Other findings of the new study are largely consistent with administration estimates. The authors foresee the creation of 17,000 to 21,000 permanent jobs in the labor-intensive industry once the casinos are up and running. Patrick puts that figure at 20,000. State revenue projections also line up. Patrick predicts that $400 million a year would flow to the state, which he wants to use for property tax relief and transportation projects. The study projects between $376 million and $429 million.
Casino opponents worry that compulsive gambling and other social costs will outweigh the economic benefits. They gained momentum recently after Patrick oversold the construction jobs. But the measured UHY study reinforces the administration's original argument that resort casinos can be a significant force both for economic development and new state revenues.
Dueling studies are sure to be on display March 18, when hearings are scheduled on Patrick's casino bill at the Joint Committee on Economic Development and Emerging Technologies. Some show that the number of crimes go up in casino counties. Others counter that crime rates fall after factoring in the population increases common to casino counties. Similar arguments may be heard concerning unemployment rates, home prices, and other common areas of dispute. But the real job of lawmakers is to clear away the underbrush of the debate and determine if casinos, on balance, are a net benefit for the state.
Based on the latest independent study, the answer is still yes.
