AN EXERCISE by Israel's air force over the Mediterranean earlier this month ought to set off alarm bells around the world, for the refueling operations and evasive maneuvers suggested a practice run for an attack on Iran's nuclear sites.
Whether Israel simply hopes to avoid an attack by threatening one, or whether the Israelis were getting ready for an impending attack, the lesson should be the same: The Bush administration and other involved governments must do everything in their power to keep Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon - and keep Iran from bombed to prevent its becoming a nuclear power.
Preventing both nightmares will require a deal, one that grants Iran a guaranteed supply of uranium for peaceful uses as well as other benefits. Iranian officials have hinted that the key requirement for any such deal would be a comprehensive agreement on regional security issues. For the regime in Tehran, this means a guarantee that it would not suffer the same fate as Saddam Hussein's regime did in Iraq.
Until now, President Bush has gone no further than approving a modest offer of commercial incentives to Iran from Britain, France, and Germany. Crucially, Bush has not allowed a high-level American envoy to be at the table with the European negotiators and their Iranian interlocutors.
It may be that Iran is hell-bent on crossing the nuclear-weapons threshold and will never cut a deal to give up uranium enrichment. But Bush's refusal to make Iran an offer that would truly test its intentions has meant that the world is coming closer and closer to a choice between accepting either an attack on Iran or a nuclear-armed Iran.
Not that Bush is the only obstacle in this drama. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran continues to make dire threats against Israel and to insult Western nations seeking to resolve the nuclear issue diplomatically. It is as if he wanted to provoke Israel or the US to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities.
Should such an attack occur, it would almost certainly be extensive, striking the same underground sites several times, targeting every suspect installation, and seeking to suppress Iran's anti-aircraft defenses. Iran's retaliation could come in diverse forms and different places, by proxies or by Iranian hands.
The only responsible US policy at this point is to engage directly with Iran, to determine if there is any package of political and economic rewards its leaders will accept as compensation for forgoing nuclear weapons. Instead, Iran, Israel, the United States, and several other countries have been playing a dangerous game of chicken over Iran's nuclear program.
