AFTER IRAN test-fired nine missiles Wednesday near the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of the world's oil passes, Defense Secretary Robert Gates wisely refused to overreact. "There is a lot of signaling going on," he said. "But I think everybody recognizes what the consequences of any kind of conflict would be. And I will tell you that this government is working hard to make sure that the diplomatic and economic approach to dealing with Iran, and trying to get the Iranian government to change its policies, is the strategy and is the approach that continues to dominate."
This was an unruffled view of the threats and counter-threats being exchanged between Iran and Israel on the one hand and the United States on the other. The missile tests ostensibly showed Iran's ability to retaliate against any attack on its nuclear facilities, but military experts tend to view the display as overblown. Gates insisted that there is nothing in the missile tests to alter current administration policy.
That policy supports a "5-plus-1" diplomatic effort by the five permanent United Nations Security Council members, plus Germany. Iran would receive incentives if it suspends its enrichment of uranium and enters negotiations on its nuclear program. If not, UN and Western economic sanctions on Iran would keep ratcheting up.
Subtly but unmistakably, Gates made it clear that this patient, peaceful policy - the one he strongly favors, along with the uniformed military and senior intelligence officials - "continues to dominate" over the hawkish one associated with Vice President Dick Cheney and like-minded hardliners.
But there is something missing from the strategy Gates commends. Although he wisely refuses to be provoked by Iran's testing of erratic missiles that lack crucial guidance systems, Gates glides over President Bush's failure to place a senior US official at the negotiating table and to offer Iran the sort of comprehensive security agreements Iranian officials have hinted they require. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice signed the 5-plus-1 offer, but that gesture alone is hardly enough to bring the Iranian regime to the bargaining table.
What is needed is something that Thomas Fingar, director of the National Intelligence Council, called for Wednesday: a recognition "that Iran has real security needs" and that "we are part of the reason Iran feels insecure." Maybe nothing can deflect Iran from a pursuit of nuclear weapons. But until an American president makes an offer that truly tests Iranian intentions, there will be more chest-thumping and military exercises in the world's most volatile region.
