Getting real on Iran

August 14, 2008

THERE HAVE been welcome indications recently that the Bush administration intends to continue with purely diplomatic efforts to dissuade Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability. As Secretary of Defense Robert Gates wrote in a recent article for the United States Army War College quarterly, "Another war in the Middle East is the last thing we need."

Recent admonitions to Israel not to bomb Iranian nuclear sites, delivered by top US military and intelligence officials, suggest that Gates is on firm ground. The warnings to Israel reflect a newfound willingness to weigh the risks in a matter that can have far-reaching security ramifications for America, Israel, and many other countries.

The assumptions underlying such caution include a belief that Iran still has a long way to go before it can produce a nuclear weapon; that Iran can be made to pay a much higher price for refusing to heed international demands to suspend uranium enrichment; and that bombing known nuclear sites in Iran would delay that country's progress on enrichment by at most a year or two - if that long.

The director of national intelligence, Mike McConnell, and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mike Mullen, went to Israel in June and, according to the Washington Post, told Israeli defense officials that the United States would not permit Israel to fly through Iraqi airspace to bomb nuclear facilities in Iran. They reportedly argued that Iran was not close to producing a nuclear weapon, and that an Israeli strike against Iranian targets would damage US interests.

This is a sound approach, at least for now. Iran has undoubtedly dispersed centrifuge facilities in underground locations. Bombing the above-ground sites would not only provoke Iranian retaliation, but would likely cause Iran to accelerate its nuclear program.

To reassure Israel, Gates has wisely offered to station an advanced radar system there and to integrate Israel directly into America's early warning satellite network. He also proposed increased US funding for anti-missile and anti-rocket systems Israel has been developing.

President Bush would also be wise to heed Israeli suggestions that he obtain Russia's cooperation in greatly strengthening sanctions on Iran. To do so, Bush would have to cancel the seriously flawed missile-defense system he has been trying to deploy in Poland and the Czech Republic. He would be giving up a leaking umbrella for a chance to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power.