DURING the fall campaign, Joe Biden ruminated aloud about a foreign policy challenge that a President Obama would have to confront early on. That challenge has come even sooner than Biden anticipated. To test Barack Obama's intentions, if not his mettle, Russia recently announced it plans to go forward with the on-again off-again sale of an advanced air defense system to Iran.
The military purpose of the S-300 air defense system would be to hinder the United States or Israel from setting back Iran's nuclear program with an air assault on Iranian nuclear sites. Russia has no interest in helping Iran obtain nuclear weapons, but President Dmitry Medvedev and his mentor, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, may want to lay down a marker even before Obama takes up his responsibilities in the Oval Office.
They want to show Obama they have valuable cards to play. If he wants their cooperation on Iran, they want some quid pro quos. They want the cancellation of President Bush's plan to deploy a dubious missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic. They are no less adamant in opposing Bush proposals for NATO expansion that would include Georgia and Ukraine.
The Russians are also eager to reach agreement on three arms-control treaties signed during the Cold War or in its immediate aftermath. The Bush administration has been reluctant to renew the START I agreement on reducing strategic nuclear weapons. That agreement is set to expire next Dec. 5, and Russia wants a follow-up treaty.
The Kremlin also wants to revise the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe. Since many of its former satellites are now in the Western camp, the numbers of permitted weapons have tilted against Russia. And the Russians dislike the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty because it bans the cheaper, shorter-range ballistic missiles that balance America's long-range arsenal.
A good augury for Obama's early Kremlin challenge is that both Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana, the ranking Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, and Henry Kissinger visited Moscow this month for high-level discussions. Lugar met with a counterpart in the Russian Duma, and Kissinger held talks with Medvedev and Putin.
These two go-betweens may bring Obama a message about the Kremlin's terms for repairing a relationship that deteriorated dangerously under Bush. Because the missile defense system is flawed and because key European allies already oppose NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine, Obama will have a chance to trade low-value cards inherited from Bush for crucial Russian cooperation on proliferation, terrorism, and energy security. Obama has the cards. Now he has to play them right.![]()


