The race is on

The emergence of A-list candidates should guarantee a substantive debate over the state’s finances. Growing needs, dismal revenue projections, and voter anxiety combine to create an opportunity for Baker, Cahill, Republican convenience store magnate Christy Mihos, and other potential challengers. But they will also have to spell out how they would manage the state better.

On paper, Baker and Cahill both look formidable. Baker is well respected within political and healthcare circles. He was secretary of administration and finance under governors Weld and Cellucci and now runs Harvard Pilgrim Health Care. And while Cahill has come under fire on a few ethical and policy matters, he has ably overseen the state’s School Building Authority. He may make inroads among working-class and conservative Democrats.

Patrick, no doubt, has struggled at times. He has also paid politically for confronting some problems honestly. The recent sales tax hike was unpopular but necessary. His plan to fund transportation with a higher gas tax stalled in the Legislature, but it remains far more responsible than the accounting tricks that past administrations preferred. His push for pension and transportation reforms has cost him with employee unions that form part of his party’s base.

Between now and the election, there will be many more ugly choices. If Patrick seems vulnerable, though, it’s not because average voters think reforms on Beacon Hill have been too aggressive. This week’s movement in the governor’s race represents a warning sign, and Patrick isn’t the only incumbent who should pay attention.