A DECLINING population will pose economic challenges, but none are as great as the challenges we'll face in a world hurtling toward 11 billion people.
The population is still rising (by 78 million people every year) because of several factors. Most important, the global fertility rate is 2.6, higher than replacement level. This might not seem significant, but that half a child means the difference between a world in 2050 with 7.8 billion people and one with 9.2 billion - a difference larger than the population of China.
Jacoby argues that fewer people will mean fewer problem solvers. He forgets that the great majority of population growth occurs in the poorest regions, where school enrollment and economic opportunities are lacking.
By his logic, with fertility at 6.5 children per woman, Uganda should be at the cutting edge of technology; sadly, it's not.
If we truly want to solve the problems of poverty and environmental degradation, we must first address population growth.
MARIAN STARKEY
Communications manager
Population Connection
Washington
