Epic indecision among GOP voters
THE MOST striking thing about the presidential contest in both parties is the high percentage of voters who are undecided or only "leaning" toward a candidate, even after a year of campaigning. What accounts for the indecision?
My theory: Many Democrats are undecided because they are afraid of losing. Many Republicans are undecided because they're afraid of winning. Democrats worry they might pick a nominee who ends up being less electable than they imagined during the primaries (post-Kerry trauma). Republicans worry they might pick a nominee who wins but then disappoints them (post-Bush syndrome).
At least on the Republican side, overcoming voters' vacillation is turning out to be a struggle of epic proportions.
A Republican odyssey. Historically, Republicans prefer a next-in-line successor as presidential nominee. Vice President Dick Cheney decided not to run, so there's no heir apparent.
For the general election odyssey, which Republican candidate is our Ulysses? Who seems like an obvious next chief?
John McCain seemed like a natural commander in chief, given his experience in foreign policy, and began as front-runner. But when he sounded lenient on illegal immigration, his supporters migrated to other candidates. Rudy Giuliani seemed like a national security chief because of his leadership as "America's mayor" after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. He became the new front-runner in national polls. Mitt Romney seemed like a chief executive officer, someone who could manage domestic programs. He became the front-runner in Iowa and New Hampshire.
"Law and Order" star Fred Thompson raised hopes of being communicator in chief - like Ronald Reagan, another actor-turned-president. But Thompson seemed miscast as a leading man. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee seems like counselor in chief - a minister preaching "compassionate conservatism." He is the new front-runner in Iowa.
But to bring Republicans back to the White House, one of these candidates will have to show a broader claim to all parts of the president's job.
Herculean feats. The leading Republicans have each demonstrated great strength. Giuliani helped turn around the reality and reputation of New York as the crime capital of the country. Romney helped turn around the scandal-tainted 2002 Winter Olympics and several businesses. McCain survived with courage and honor as a POW in Vietnam for 5 1/2 years, despite brutal torture.
Thompson prevented all kinds of disasters. . . . No, wait, those were movie roles. Well, he succeeded as a Republican actor in Democratic-dominated Hollywood. Huckabee lost 110 pounds over the last 22 months, despite the temptation of fried Twinkies at Iowa county fairs. Unfortunately, if he continues to lose weight at this rate, sometime in the third year of his presidency he'll disappear.
Achilles' heels. Each candidate has an Achilles' heel, a vulnerability that could prove fatal for the nomination.
Giuliani is too liberal on social issues for many Republicans. Romney is viewed as a "turnaround artist," but mainly in the sense of changing his principles and positions out of political expediency. McCain is considered wrong on the issue Republicans most want to talk about (immigration) and right on the issue they don't want to think about (Bush's miscalculations about Iraq, before the surge).
Thompson seems to lack Reagan's energy, warmth, and optimism. With no real foreign policy experience, Huckabee seems like a lightweight for president.
Marathon men. Each Republican has a different route to the nomination.
Giuliani needs Huckabee to beat Romney in Iowa. He needs a divided opposition to sweep the bigger states on Feb. 5. Romney needs to win Iowa, then New Hampshire, and make it a Rudy versus Romney race. To come back, McCain needs to win New Hampshire, then South Carolina.
Thompson needs to place third in Iowa and New Hampshire - and has to win South Carolina. Huckabee needs to win Iowa and South Carolina to emerge as the conservative alternative to Giuliani.
Only Zeus knows. Republicans want a nominee who will win in November, but that depends on which Democrat is nominated. There's no oracle to reveal who that will be.
Giuliani might be the best contrast with Hillary Clinton. His record in New York is more impressive. Thompson might be the best match-up with John Edwards - no-nonsense prosecutor versus slick defense lawyer. McCain might be strongest against Bill Richardson. He could compete with the Hispanic-American governor for Hispanic voters.
Huckabee might be strongest against Barack Obama. They both preach the "politics of hope." Romney might be the best contrast with Joe Biden - results-oriented executive versus long-winded senator.
The only thing we know for sure is that this will be decided by undecided voters.
Is that a good thing? I don't know. I'm undecided.
Todd Domke is a Boston-area Republican political analyst, public relations strategist, and author.
