Today's primary has Reagan-Ford ring to it
IN THIS YEAR'S primary season, the 1976 Ford-Reagan clash for the Republican nomination clearly presents the possibility of history repeating itself - only this time in the Democratic Party.
On an emotional level, those of us supporting California Governor Ronald Reagan that year thought we not only could challenge a sitting president, Gerald Ford, but beat him and win the nomination. Our hunch was that because politics is like athletics, the public and the media would relish a contest between a president and an exciting, charismatic candidate like Reagan.
At first, it even appeared to be a winnable contest for the challenger. But the truth is that when it was all over, there never was a chance to beat Ford. While it looked close and was close at the convention, the power of the presidency and the establishment was absolutely clear.
In this year's campaign, the Democratic challenger, Senator Barack Obama, might just succeed in unseating the establishment candidate, Senator Hillary Clinton, as Reagan failed to do in 1976.
The Ford camp had the votes going in; and if Ford needed more, there were more available to him. Reagan never really had a chance. The Reagan campaign made a very dramatic last-minute maneuver by making an early choice for vice president - Senator Richard Schweiker from Pennsylvania. But Reagan not only didn't get the Pennsylvania delegation, he actually came out of Pennsylvania with one vote fewer than he had before choosing the senator.
Cliff Reed, who ran the Mississippi delegation and was pledged to Reagan, was an easy convert to Ford when pressure was applied. There were certainly others who were less than loyal to the Reagan campaign who would have gone over to Ford if he had needed them.
The 1976 convention really did two things. It established the base from which Reagan would run in 1980 and showed the campaign the necessity of not only winning primaries but controlling the political environment. It also pointed out that even with a candidate favored by the party's base, you need to know a lot of things that go into winning a campaign beyond what the public sees.
In the campaigns today, with all the talk about the candidates' experience, what isn't mentioned is the experience they have in putting together and maintaining a winning campaign. While Reagan had run twice for governor in California, that's a long way from running a national campaign. Ford himself had not run national campaigns, but the establishment that made up his organization had been the king-makers who had twice elected Richard Nixon.
I say that history looks as though it is repeating itself now because, while Obama is charismatic and exciting, if he should win the New Hampshire primary he will still face the Democratic establishment with an organization that has proven itself in the campaigns of Bill Clinton. Hillary is in effect the titular head of the party, supported by those who know how to make things happen.
I don't think I or other Granite State Reagan supporters will ever forget our emotions in 1976 when Reagan mistakenly struck a pro-tax note and narrowly lost the primary. The excitement of the rebound that followed, as we went through the primaries and at least glimpsed the possibility of winning, only increased between 1976 and 1980. For me working the floor of that 1976 convention, the drama of that night and its loss became the battle that had to be won. I will never forget when Reagan gave his concession speech.
When he finished, the crowd stood and cheered for what seemed like forever and the lights went back and forth from one end of the hall to the other. The roar of the crowd when the spotlights were on the Reagans seemed like it was almost too loud to bear and would never end. I don't think it's because I was a Reagan supporter. I think it was absolutely true that while Ford had the votes of the delegates at the convention, Reagan had their hearts.
If there ever was an example of an organization defeating the will of its members, it was clear that night. Out of loyalty, many Republicans voted for their party's president while in their hearts and minds they wished it was Reagan. Four years later, they got the chance to correct that mistake - and the rest is history.
Gerald Carmen assisted Ronald Reagan in his 1976 campaign in New Hampshire and later served as US special representative to the United Nations in Geneva. He is a delegate for Fred Thompson in New Hampshire.
