The winning recipe for casinos

I ASKED the Patrick administration if it was worried that a possible recession would dent its proposed casino revenues. Spokeswoman Kofi Jones responded in an e-mail: "The Las Vegas and Atlantic City models are vastly different from the destination resort model." Jones reaffirmed that Governor Deval Patrick's plan "protects against oversaturation."

The irony is, while Patrick does not propose an over-the-top Las Vegas, the best way to insulate the revenues he promises is precisely to have resorts that make Las Vegas a destination.

Last week the Associated Press reported that revenues from the glitziest resorts on the Strip were up 33 percent with a net income of $1.66 billion. But net income was down 54 percent at the less glamorous downtown Vegas casinos.

Up north, Reno resorts were up 2.8 percent. The ones on the south shore of Lake Tahoe were down 54 percent. Part of the decline is because of competition from exploding casino play in California.

In Mississippi, the rebuilt, post-Hurricane Katrina coastal resorts are booming, helping the state pull in a record $2.89 billion in revenues in the nation's third-largest casino market. But the second-largest market, Atlantic City, saw revenues drop 5.7 percent, to just under $5 billion. Part of Atlantic City's problem is fresh competition from Pennsylvania slots. Atlantic City is about to freshen its image with new mega-resorts in the next few years.

The New York Times reported that with higher gasoline prices and the tremors in the economy, slot machine revenues at Connecticut's Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun resorts were down a respective 7 and 3 percent in October and November.

The Times quoted Mitchell Etess, chief executive of the Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority as saying, "What we're seeing is with consumer confidence down and people feeling not so good about their own net worth, people are spending less. Declines are somewhat unprecedented for us."

What this means is that if Patrick really gets his three casinos, he better go all out, with the likes of an MGM Grand here, a Venetian there, and a Wynn Las Vegas over there (Steve Wynn, who has sunk billions into glamorous casinos, is interested).

With gas prices not dropping anytime soon and gaming advocates in Connecticut already gearing up to compete beyond what already exists at Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun, national gaming experts Bill Eadington of the University of Nevada at Reno and David Schwartz of the University of Nevada at Las Vegas both said by phone that Las Vegas thus far has insulated itself from shocks by being about much more than gambling.

In the AP's 2007 figures for Nevada, gaming accounted for 49.4 percent of revenues. Hotel rooms accounted for 20 percent, restaurants, 13.5 percent, and bars, 7 percent. The remainder came from the leasing of resort space to restaurants and retail stores.

"The decision to get into the gaming business, when it's worked out best, is because it is being used to benefit tourism and development and redevelopment," Schwartz said. "When it's not done well, when it's just a governor plugging a hole in the budget, or just trying to take away money from Rhode Island or Connecticut, it just becomes something where the money might make the stomach full for a minute, but the appetite just gets larger."

I do not care if Massachusetts has casinos (what I detest is the prey-on-the-poor lottery). But as a nongambler, I see entertainment merit in a true destination casino resort. I have been to Las Vegas many times, never to go to the Strip itself, but because of family or business. Still, I have dropped plenty of money at restaurants in the resorts. Closer to home, our Boy Scout troop has gone to the Native American museum at Foxwoods because, of all things, it was educational. This does not even get into the myriad of shows, concerts, and conventions such resorts have. I have never been to a Vegas or Foxwoods show, but I could see myself going to one in Massachusetts.

"Some people go to Las Vegas just to see - don't laugh - Barry Manilow or Wayne Newton or Tom Jones," Schwartz said. "Bette Midler is about to start a show and Celine Dion just finished a long run where people came from as far as France. Although your food critic might not agree, only New York and San Francisco have a better concentration of four-star restaurants. The secret is a broader appeal than gambling."

The secret is making sure the plan is not just about filling a hole in the state budget.

Derrick Z. Jackson's e-mail is jackson@globe.com.