Tuesday's tipping point
THERE'S A tipping point in politics, when victory starts to feel inevitable.
Barack Obama is moving toward it. But Hillary Clinton isn't about to get out of his way.
Moment, momentum, and money are cresting almost perfectly for the senator from Illinois, after a remarkable week in presidential politics.
Obama celebrated a huge primary victory in South Carolina. Afterward, he basked in a Camelot glow, winning prized endorsements from Caroline Kennedy and Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts.
Obama's campaign swelled with energy and optimism. Clinton's campaign felt small and defensive, deflated by the husband who was supposed to be the candidate's best advocate.
Then came their high-stakes Hollywood debate. Clinton didn't win, but she did well enough to slow down the Obama wave.
Clinton's best debate moments came on healthcare and immigration, where she backed up formidable knowledge about policy with passion and commitment. Obama looked weak on healthcare. He's afraid to get behind a personal mandate for health insurance, a strange position for a candidate who is running with Ted Kennedy's blessing. Massachusetts adopted such a mandate, with strong backing from its senior senator, who played a major role in winning approval for healthcare reform in this state.
On immigration, Obama sounded disingenuous when he dodged a question about whether any jobs are lost to illegal immigrants. Clinton was straightforward in rebuttal: "I believe that in many parts of our country, because of employers who exploit undocumented workers and drive down wages, there are job losses. And I think we should be honest about that, " she said.
Clinton's worst moments came on two eternally sore points - Bill Clinton and the Iraq war. On both, she missed a chance to connect with voters on the human level that is so essential in politics.
Asked how she would be able to control her husband in the White House if she can't control him on the campaign trail, Clinton missed an opportunity to convince voters she recognized his mistakes and wouldn't let him repeat them. On Iraq, she also missed a chance to tell voters she recognized her own mistake in voting to essentially authorize President Bush to invade that country - or that she learned from that mistake. "I think I made a reasoned judgment," she said, an answer that ducks the terrible consequences of that judgment.
Afterward, voters were still left weighing the merits of two smart Democrats whose positions are very similar, even regarding Iraq. Although Obama gave a speech against the war as a state senator, his voting record as a US senator is the same as Clinton's on war-related amendments.
So, what's the tipping point going to be on Feb. 5, when Democrats in 22 states go to the polls?
Is it about making history by voting for a woman for president or making history by voting for an African-American man?
Is it about resurrecting the Kennedy legacy or reviving the Clinton legacy?
Is it about the power of uplifting speech? Or, is it about the power that comes from knowledge of the White House and all its pressures?
During the debate, Clinton did have a good response to the dynasty issue. "As you know, it did take a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush and I think it might take another one to clean up after the second Bush," she said.
Still, after the dreariness of the past eight years, a switch to a new generation of leadership is tempting. Obama's timing is perfect; is it perfect enough to overcome the original script?
Hillary Clinton was supposed to be inevitable. The success of that story line relies on women and the implicit understanding that if Clinton fails, the chance for making that kind of history goes down with her. It requires voters to decide that Clinton is the Democrat with the best chance to beat the Republican nominee in November, and, once elected, would be the best at advancing her agenda.
It also hinges on the hope that voters may yet resist the charisma and poetry of a candidate they are just getting to know, in favor of a well-known, if not well-loved, rival.
Can the thrill of insurgency overtake the comfort of the familiar? For Obama, that's the tipping point.
Joan Vennochi's e-mail address is vennochi@globe.com. 