SAMANTHA POWER quit as Barack Obama's foreign policy adviser for stooping to call Hillary Clinton a "monster." That was the least of her embarrassments. The monster she left in the room is far more dangerous to both Obama and Clinton, whichever one wins the Democratic nomination. Power merely resigned. She left behind a stunning air of resignation about Iraq.
In a BBC interview last week, Power, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author and Harvard University global affairs professor, said Obama's plan to remove combat troops from Iraq in his first 16 months was a "best-case scenario." She said Obama "can't make a commitment, in whatever month we're in now, in March of 2008, about what circumstances are going to be like in January of 2009 . . . He will of course, not rely upon some plan that he's crafted as a presidential candidate or as a US senator. He will rely upon a plan, an operational plan that he pulls together in consultation with people who are on the ground to whom he doesn't have daily access now."
The Obama campaign went into a damage control mode that veered into the territory of George H.W. Bush's 1988 Republican nomination speech in which he declared, "Read my lips: no new taxes." Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said Obama maintains a "rock-solid commitment . . . It will be 16 months at the most where you can withdraw combat troops."
Obama himself reasserted last week, "I will bring this war to an end in 2009, so don't be confused."
The Clinton campaign is cackling at this, but it should not laugh too hard. After all, Clinton has spent a great deal of time being confused by the power of Obama's antiwar platform, forcing her to edge as close as she can to Obama's rhetoric without stealing his words. In winning Ohio, she asked, "Who would you hire to end the war in Iraq and answer the phone at 3 a.m. in the White House?" On victory night in Ohio, she said, "We're ready to end the war in Iraq and win the war in Afghanistan."
But how ready? It is clear that events on the ground are rapidly outstripping anything they have on their websites. The latest speech the Obama campaign offers in its "Iraq" issues section remains one he gave in Iowa six months ago. "The best way to protect our security and to pressure Iraq's leaders to resolve their civil war is to immediately begin to remove our combat troops," Obama said. "Not in six months or one year - now."
The most recent speech offered on the Clinton "Iraq" issues section is older still, given last July in Iowa. Clinton said her first step would be to "end our military's engagement in Iraq's civil war and immediately start bringing our troops home as quickly and carefully as possible."
But a host of military officials "on the ground," the very ground Obama and Clinton say they will consult with, are saying something different. In a conference call with online journalists last week, Air Force Colonel Dean Clemons, an adviser to the Iraqi defense minister, reasserted that the Iraqis will not be ready to protect themselves from internal threats without US soldiers until 2012 and will not be ready to defend against external threats until between 2018 and 2020.
Asked if that meant US involvement until Iraq was ready, Clemons said, "Yeah." Also last week, retired General Barry McCaffrey said on National Public Radio that while tens of thousands of troops will come home because "there's no political support for the war," he anticipates up to 40,000 soldiers staying for up to a decade, "providing embedded trainers to the Iraqi Security Forces as well as a continuing air power, special operations, intelligence, logistics capability."
That might make defense contractors happy, but that is far from what Obama and Clinton are selling. In a January debate, Clinton said, "I hope to have nearly all of them out within a year." Obama countered with his 16-month timetable because "It can't be muddy, it can't be fuzzy." Referring to the Iraqis, he said, "They've got to know that we are serious about this process."
But what numbers constitute "serious" and the muddy road to fuzziness? A February Wall Street Journal article said one Obama adviser was "comfortable" with a long-term US troop presence of about 35,000 troops after his 16-month deadline. Those moldy lead speeches on their websites just might be an indication that Iraq is more fuzzy to them than either wants to admit.
Derrick Z. Jackson's e-mail address is jackson@globe.com.
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