An opportunity to defuse the Taiwan standoff
THE TAIWAN election results provide the United States with an opportunity to reduce one of its greatest security risks, the risk of conflict with China. Such a conflict could make the Iraq war seem like a local squabble. The immediate danger is that miscalculations or incidents could set off a conflict between Taiwan and mainland China and that the United States, to defend Taiwan, would be dragged into the fight.
Even if the United States avoids miscalculations, the long term danger is that China and the United States treat each other as potential adversaries, that tensions provoke an arms race and eventually conflict. It is difficult for two sides preparing for possible conflict with each other to develop the trust to be transparent about weapon systems and intentions.
The most basic US interest in Asia is preserving a stable, peaceful environment so that trade, travel, and exchanges can continue and nations can cooperate in responding to common challenges - protecting the environment, limiting global warming, enabling a smooth supply of energy, and controlling diseases.
The election of Ma Ying-jeou provides the best opportunity to defuse the Taiwan situation since Beijing and Taipei representatives met in 1992. It is not clear when another such opportunity will arise. Mainland officials have said that if Taiwan agrees to preconditions they are ready to carry on dialogue with Ma Ying-jeou.
Ma Ying-jeou is extraordinarily well-prepared for the job. A strategic-thinking Harvard Law School graduate and former secretary to President Chiang Ching-ku (son of Chiang Kai-shek), formerly a leader of national unification work, charismatic politician, he has been thinking about this opportunity for three decades. He has made it clear that he will not discuss unification, which the local Taiwanese public is not ready to discuss, but he will discuss closer cooperation. He will also strengthen military cooperation with the United States to be able to negotiate with the mainland from a position of strength.
The history of US-China relations over Taiwan is entangled. The legacy reflects the Chinese Civil War when Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan, the Korean War when the United States prevented Beijing from completing the Civil War, earlier American support for Chiang Kai-shek, the switch of US recognition from Taipei to Beijing as the official government of China, and Taiwan separatism that grew up in the late 1980s as Taiwan became more democratic.
The United States has a "one China policy" and recognizes the government of Beijing as the sole legitimate government of China but does not recognize Taiwan as part of China, for it considers that the status of Taiwan has not been determined. The United States does not recognize Taiwan as an independent nation, but it maintains unofficial relations with the "people of Taiwan" and supplies Taiwan with weapons to defend itself.
As unbelievable as it may be, although the United States has opposed the use of force to resolve the Taiwan problem, it has never explicitly declared that it would support an agreement reached peacefully by the two sides. Some mainland Chinese leaders still believe the United States wants to block reunification to slow down China's rise.
In recent years, mainland China has become much more nuanced in dealing with Taiwan. Its leaders realize that it is in their interest to find policies that are acceptable to the Taiwanese people. Ma Ying-jeou is now ready to hold discussions to explore the content of possible agreements with the mainland.
The United States should declare categorically support for any agreement that Taiwan and Beijing reach peacefully and actively encourage both sides to reach agreements. This would help ameliorate one of the most troubling issues left over from the Cold War. This will take time and will not solve all the difficult issues as China continues to rise, but it could greatly reduce the greatest irritant to Sino-American relations and substantially increase the prospects for peace in Asia.
Ezra Vogel is former director of Harvard's Asia Studies Center and a specialist on China and Japan. 