Clinton victory creates another stalemate
Barack Obama couldn’t seal the deal, and so Hillary Clinton gets another shot to make her appeal — and hope for a steal.
That is, that the superdelegates will ignore the pledged delegate totals and award her the nomination on the grounds that her primary performance in crucial states and with crucial voting blocs has demonstrated that she has a better shot at beating Republican John McCain in November.
‘‘Because of you, the tide is turning,’’ she declared to her Pennsylvania supporters. But for her to win, superdelegates are the tide she must turn.
As the results rolled in last night, each camp recited its by now familiar arguments — arguments seemingly tailored as much for those superdelegates as for everyday Democrats.
Clinton’s people stressed the battleground states she has won — states the Democrats must carry to prevail in November — the working class voters she attracted yesterday, and her victory despite being heavily outspent. Clinton herself used the results to suggest, somewhat immodestly, that Pennsylvania had somehow certified her as the candidate ready on day one to take over as commander-in-chief, tackle the two wars abroad, and address the economic problems here at home.
Obama’s supporters cited his lead in pledged delegates and in the total popular vote, plus the many millions he has raised and the new people he has brought into the process.
What we’ll dub the Mario Scenario also got some serious chat-time from cable commentators: the idea, which former New York governor Mario Cuomo outlined in a Boston Globe guest column, that to avoid a Democratic disaster in November, whoever wins the Democratic nomination will have to choose the other to keep her or his supporters in the Democratic fold.
Like so much else about this race, last night’s results didn’t lend themselves to a crystal clear interpretation.
Judged by the standards of a few months ago, when Clinton led in Pennsylvania by 20 points, her 10 percentage point margin was neither huge nor galvanic. And indeed, in his own remarks, Obama stressed that he had closed the gap in the Keystone State. And yet, measured against more recent polling, which showed the race narrowing to close single digits — and in several cases, to a tie — Clinton’s margin was substantial.
It wasn’t, however, a victory that will bring her much closer in the pledged delegate math. So again, the real question is whether it will be enough to reverse the recent trend of superdelegates toward Obama.
The view here is that it shouldn’t be. After all, in the first voting since the revelation of the wrathful Rev. Wright and a political world all atwitter over bitter, Obama didn’t collapse, but rather gave one masterful speech, survived a tough debate, and ended up turning in a respectable showing of his own.
Still, Clinton found a friend in Pennsylvania, and her showing there was clearly enough to forestall pressure for her to drop out. It will win her some breathing room, some momentum, some money, and some evidence to advance her argument as the campaign goes forward toward the next big contests (sorry, Guam), the May 6 showdowns in North Carolina and in Indiana.
Scot Lehigh can be reached at lehigh@globe.com.
