HILLARY Clinton has finally run out of gas. Her weak win in Indiana, combined with the drubbing she took in North Carolina, a state Barack Obama called "big," spells the beginning of the end for her die-hard, 16-month campaign using ordinary means.
Her only chance now is to slog on to the Democratic convention in August hoping that Obama or something yet unknown allows her to pitch the superdelegates, again, on the idea that her opponent can't win in the fall.
That Wright man. Like actor Dennis Hopper, the equally crazed Rev. Jeremiah Wright could pop up at any moment and spew a fresh batch of nonsense. More than anything, the prospect of a resurrected Wright gives the Clintonista reason for hope.
Trouble is, the Clintons know there is life after a bad relationship: If Bill Clinton could survive Gennifer Flowers, Obama can deal with Wright.
Michigan and Florida's 366 delegates are Clinton's last hope. The states' fates could remain in limbo until the convention, when they get decided by the party's credentials committee; its three co-chairs, including Jim Roosevelt of Boston, all worked in the Bill Clinton administration.
The credentials committee contains 186 members - can this many people decide anything? Party chairman Howard Dean appoints 25 of them. The Clintons don't trust Dean and want him gone.
Back-room maneuvering could begin May 31, when the party's 30-member rules and bylaws committee meets to consider Florida and Michigan. One-half of this committee's members are Clinton backers. They could try to ram through a ruling that would seat those delegates at the convention, giving Clinton at least 55 more delegates than Obama, according to Clinton operatives. This would provoke an ugly fight the party doesn't need.
Let the elites decide. The superdelegates don't want to pick the nominee all by themselves. But they could. In 1984, they gave front-runner Walter Mondale the nomination over upstart Gary Hart. Clinton has to hope that something weird happens before the convention that causes many superdelegates to believe Obama cannot win the White House.
Forget the voters. For months, voters believed they were picking their party's candidate for president. If the convention is deadlocked, the superdelegates and switchers and dealmakers will pick the winner, disenfranchising millions of voters.
Get over it. Suppose Obama leads in delegates and popular vote but the superdelegates hand the nomination to Clinton. Obama's black, young, and upscale delegates will storm out of the convention and promise payback in the fall.
Most of Obama's voters - particularly African-Americans, the Democrats' most loyal supporters - will never support Clinton if Obama's legitimate claim to the nomination is nullified. Can you say, "President McCain?"
The press can't believe it's over.
The Clinton will to win. Clinton undoubtedly feels the top spot belongs to her. She's won all the big blue states and has institutional support through her husband's appointments; the convention experience of her people is light years ahead of anything Obama has. But her greatest asset is an unyielding will to win, an all-consuming commitment to getting one's way. (This happens to be the title of a book by firebrand college basketball coach Bobby Knight, who recently resigned after a dismal season, proving that will is often overrated.)
The Bredesen plan. Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen has proposed a superdelegates "primary" for June after the primaries and caucuses are over. Rather than wait for the convention, all 795 superdelegates would on a given date commit publicly to Clinton or Obama. It could be done online, avoiding the need for travel.
This forces the hands of "uncommitted" superdelegates, who have plenty of information to make an informed decision, and allows the party to know its winner by early June, bringing an end to this exhilarating, maddening campaign. As the Grateful Dead sang, "What a long, strange trip it's been." And it's only half over.
Dan Payne is a media consultant who has worked for Democratic candidates around the country. He does political analysis for WBUR radio.
