Clinton's future depends on graceful exit
IT'S EASY to get seduced by delusion when real hope has faded, as it now has for Hillary Clinton.
You don't want to hear that it's time to go, and other political figures are reluctant to say so.
Your rival and his camp, aware that you're already sinking in quicksand, don't want to overstep and become mired in a dangerous bog of presumption, so they maintain a respectful remove rather than calling on you to quit.
And, George McGovern notwithstanding, most of your friends are skittish about declaring that it's over. Yet they know the truth: The already difficult delegate math has now become highly improbable.
"Barring a totally unexpected and sensational event affecting Obama, the math doesn't compute for Hillary to win this nomination," says Paul Pezzella, a Clinton backer and contributor, and a veteran of past presidential campaigns. "I'm hearing the fanciful fat lady clearing her throat in the background."
Pezzella's right, but Clinton's Washington supporters will be more circumspect.
Witness Dianne Feinstein. On Wednesday, the California senator indicated her unease, noting that there's a question "as to whether she can get the delegates she needs" and saying she wants to hear what Clinton's strategy now is. Still, Feinstein stopped short of saying Clinton should fold her tent.
That same day, Clinton signaled her argument in a USA Today interview, saying she can win white working-class voters, while casting doubt on Obama's ability to do so.
But after Obama's strong showing on Tuesday, superdelegates now have the reassurance they need. Expect the Obama campaign to start rolling out endorsements from them.
"You are now going to see a whole raft of superdelegates go public," says one source, who estimates the Obama team has more than a dozen ready to declare in the days ahead.
Still, it's hard to give up, particularly when you believe that you're the one who can carry what are must-win states and constituencies for the Democrats. And when you think you've finally found your voice - even if it's only that of a recently minted populist seizing upon short-sighted solutions to long-term problems.
One question a flagging candidate inevitably confronts is this: What political prospects lie ahead if you quit?
Although there's plenty of talk about a dream ticket composed of the two rivals, it would make little sense for Obama to choose Clinton.
One obvious reason is that by doing so, he would take on all the past - and potentially future - controversies and baggage associated with the Clintons.
Another consideration is the very message Obama has offered. If he represents change, in that formulation Clinton is the status quo, the old politics he hopes to move beyond.
Further, for all the current worry that deep-seated enmity from the primary campaign will keep a significant segment of Clinton backers from supporting him, those sorts of tensions usually prove evanescent.
That's not to say that there's no chance of such a ticket. But the view here is the same as this judgment from a source close to the Obama campaign: "It is not going to happen. It would be antithetical to everything he has been about."
Where, then, does that leave Clinton as she vows to continue her pursuit of a nomination that has now moved beyond her plausible grasp?
Certainly she could run again, either in 2012 if Obama loses in November or, if he wins, in 2016, when she would be 68, three years younger than John McCain is now.
But the slash-and-burn tactics desperate candidates sometimes resort to in the hope of a miracle would undercut those prospects.
"At this point, her possibilities and her future in the party are very sound," says US Senator Ted Kennedy, an Obama supporter. "But the ending and the follow-up always make the difference."
Yes they do. To keep her opportunities open, Clinton has to understand something zealous members of her sharp-elbowed team may not yet: Her real quest now is not for this year's nomination but rather for an option on the future. In the closing days, she needs to conduct her campaign with that in mind.
Scot Lehigh's e-mail address is lehigh@globe.com. 