A long road ahead for Obama
A night that featured a split decision was also an evening of dueling perspectives, one realistic, one increasingly remote.
Look at the margin, argued Hillary Clinton’s camp, pointing to her huge win in Kentucky; that’s a victory that shows she would be a stronger candidate in November.
Look at the math, countered Barack Obama’s camp, highlighting the fact that he has now won a majority of the pledged delegates; that’s a critical milestone on the way to the summit.
Of the two, Obama’s arguments are by far the more meaningful at this stage in the process. Commanding a majority of the elected delegates moves the IIlinois senator across an important political threshold.
Why? Because at this point, Clinton’s only real chance at winning this nomination involves persuading the superdelegates to flock to her, despite Obama’s lead in the popular vote in contests approved by the Democratic National Committee.
It was never realistic to think those delegates would do that. Now, short of a campaign-changing event, it’s exceedingly hard to imagine them going against a candidate who has won a majority of the pledged delegates. (If the positions were reversed, and the superdelegates decided to take the nomination away from Clinton, her supporters would likely be outraged.)
Still, Clinton’s strong showing in Kentucky continues to highlight problems Obama faces with working-class white voters. Nineteen percent of white voters in Kentucky said race was a factor in deciding their votes, and that group went overwhelmingly for Clinton. Further, only 28 percent of that group said they would support Obama over Republican John McCain.
Obama’s off-setting victory in well-educated Oregon — a less resounding win — hardly puts those longer-range concerns to rest. Hard work lies ahead if Obama is to win over more of those voters.
Obama used his speech in Iowa — a speech that took place before the Oregon results were tallied — to underscore his good news on the pledged delegate front.
But that same appearance was obviously designed to do a good deal more.
In visiting Iowa, he returned to a swing state where he did well with white voters and tried to ground his message of change in the values and concerns of the heartland.
And consider his generous compliment to Clinton. ‘‘Senator Clinton has shattered myths and broken barriers and changed the America in which my daughters and your daughters will come of age, and for that we are grateful to her,’’ he said.
In stressing the enduring significance of Clinton’s campaign, he was reaching out to Clinton’s supporters, some of whom say they will not vote for him in November.
Finally, in turning his rhetorical firepower against John McCain, Obama continued to frame the real contest as between him and the Republican-nominee-to-be, even as he tried to change the subject from foreign policy to domestic issues. And, of course, to cast McCain as little but a continuation of the Bush policies on issues such as tax cuts and healthcare.
Despite the racial overtones in Kentucky, last night put Obama another step — an important step — closer to his goal.
Scot Lehigh can be reached at lehigh@globe.com.
