AS THE LEBANESE celebrate an end to a political crisis that stifled their country for 18 months and almost led them to civil war, many are left wondering about the implications of the accord reached between the Lebanese leaders in Doha. Did the Hezbollah-led opposition succeed in translating this month's military victory in Beirut into political gains? Is the Doha agreement a total capitulation for the pro-government coalition?
The answer from much of the Western media is a resounding yes, but take a closer look.
The Doha Agreement is certainly a success for the opposition in the sense that Hezbollah and its allies were rewarded for the use of their weapons. The fighting forced the Cabinet to give Hezbollah the power to veto major government decisions. Yet the foremost winner is Lebanon's new president, Michel Suleiman.
Suleiman is set to emerge as an influential third party capable of tipping the political scale one way or another. Whether through the powers of the presidency, his influence within the military, the three key ministers he will appoint, or the parliamentary alliances expected to coalesce around him, Suleiman is poised to play a leading role in Lebanon's politics that is likely to reshape the political dynamics that have been in place since the end of Syrian occupation three years ago.
The primary loser, on the other hand, is not the pro-government coalition but Hezbollah ally General Michel Aoun. The aging Aoun had long aspired to become president, and Suleiman's election for a six-year presidential term is sure to leave most of his supporters demoralized.
Many will now question Aoun's strategy of breaking with the Cedar Revolution and allying himself with Hezbollah. More important, Aoun is unlikely to maintain his substantial parliamentary bloc after the 2009 elections, especially given that candidates allied with Suleiman will probably be vying for the same seats.
The expected reversal in Aoun's fortunes will no doubt constitute a political victory for the coalition and a net political loss for the opposition. Thus far he has inflicted great damage to the course charted by the Cedar Revolution by providing Hezbollah with Christian support and allowing it to present itself as a national opposition group rather than a Shia militant organization. By the same measure he has also rid the pro-government coalition of significant Christian support. This may no longer be the case in the coming months.
Should the agreement in Doha succeed in being more than just a temporary political Band-Aid, the United States and the international community need to reconsider their Lebanon policy. Although political and economic support for Lebanon's fragile government should continue, the international community must work to build influence and leverage with Suleiman.
One way to do that is to focus on the military institution from which Suleiman hails, providing it not only adequate logistics and weaponry but also training and exchange programs abroad. The military has many shortfalls, including structural limitations due to its sectarian composition and its failure to defend Beirut from Hezbollah's recent attack. Yet it did confront Hezbollah riots earlier this year before being reprimanded for doing so. Together the army may again be ready to live up to its responsibilities to provide adequate political and military support.
Suleiman is no pro-Western democrat, that's for sure. Yet he is set to emerge as a leading force within the influential Christian community and the only party capable of exerting added pressure on Hezbollah and other pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian groups.
Furthermore as a military commander who successfully led a four-month war against an Al Qaeda-style group he enjoys the status of a war hero and is a product of Lebanon's only remaining viable institution, the national army.
Supporting Suleiman is not a sure bet, but under the circumstances it may be the best bet against what pundits are prematurely labeling as a resounding Hezbollah victory.
Firas Maksad is a Lebanon analyst and executive director of Lebanese Renaissance Foundation USA.
