A new approach for the age of $4 gasoline
THE SUMMER of 2008 already has the feel of a real turning point - a time Americans will remember when gasoline first sold for over $4 a gallon. Political calls for a gas tax holiday have been greeted with universal scorn. The search for longer term, sustainable solutions is on.
Recognizing the deeper, structural issues at work, a growing number of planners and policy analysts are seeking to prepare for the future with a fundamental overhaul of the nation's systems of transportation and of land and energy use.
Those systems were built on the premise that fossil fuels would serve as a cheap, abundant, and environmentally benign source of energy into the indefinite future. Demand for oil is outpacing supply, escalating prices to $140 a barrel and more. At the same time, the emerging consensus on global climate change - both presidential candidates support a cap-and-trade system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions - will inevitably reinforce the trend of higher energy costs until the transition from overreliance on fossil fuels is achieved.
There is no better moment to launch a major redirection of US policy, including:
A new approach to infrastructure. Investments in infrastructure in the United States as a percentage of gross domestic product are low and well behind our economic competitors in Europe and Asia. Roads and bridges must, of course, be kept in a state of good repair, but the upcoming reauthorization of federal transportation funding also presents an opportunity to provide for new choices in transportation, such as transit and high-speed intercity rail. China has started work on a Beijing-to-Shanghai bullet train - about the distance between New York and Chicago - while Europe is completing an extensive transnational high-speed rail system. Rail and transit investments will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to our competitiveness, particularly in America's most densely settled "megaregions" including the Boston-Washington corridor.
A new energy economy. Developing technology to maximize alternative and renewable energy resources like wind and solar is a growing business. Many energy specialists agree that a transformation in energy production and distribution is underway, which will be aided by incentives like the production tax credit and by managing billions of dollars in capital flows to spur innovation. Energy efficiency must become the standard for both new construction and retrofits of existing buildings.
More attention to land use. Improving vehicle efficiency is an important means to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. But the long-term upward trend in vehicle miles traveled, driven by income and demographics, is projected to cancel all such savings. Although vehicle miles traveled is down this year, it can only drop so far without a change in development patterns to provide for more use of transit, pedestrian, and bicycle modes, and fewer and shorter automobile trips. Compact, mixed-use, transit-oriented development needs to be encouraged by recalibrating zoning and building codes from the suburban era.
In 1808 and 1908 respectively, Presidents Thomas Jefferson and Theodore Roosevelt led in creating national plans for a system of ports, roads, inland waterways, national forests, railroads, and hydroelectric dams, all of which supported the expansion and development of the country throughout the 19th and first half of the 20th centuries. Now, in 2008, the 100-year cycle has returned with Representative Earl Blumenauer's proposed bipartisan commission to create a national plan for transportation, energy, and water infrastructure investment.
This summer, some families plan to spend their summer vacations closer to home while others worry that, come winter, they will not be able to afford to both heat their homes and buy gasoline to get to work. And the recent national pattern of subprime mortgage defaults in newly built, entry-level subdivisions at the suburban periphery has made a cruel hoax of the real estate strategy, "drive till you qualify."
Thinking long-term, and not in merely cosmetic responses, is the only way to avoid such painful consequences in the decades to come. Americans need more choices for how they live and get around, and that is a clear challenge for physical planning. A 21st-century plan to deal with the energy dilemma, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and provide a new pattern for economic success, will help build the communities to match this new era.
Armando Carbonell is chairman of the Department of Planning and Urban Form at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, a think tank in Cambridge.
