THE TRENDS are troubling for John McCain.
Polls show growing support for Barack Obama, for Democrats generally, and for change. And since Obama broke his public financing pledge he'll have much more money than McCain for advertising.
How can McCain change the dynamic of this race?
The simple answer is that he must be the maverick McCain of 2000 - a straight-talking, bipartisan-solutions reformer.
The more profound answer is that he must deserve to win.
Run on reform. He should base his candidacy on a platform of compelling solutions.
McCain recently proposed some good ideas to reduce our dependence on foreign oil, like "a $300 million government prize for anyone who can develop a next-generation car battery that can leapfrog available plug-in hybrids or electric cars."
He must make the case for specific, constructive change - in contrast with Obama's platitudes and vague promises. (Obama after clinching the nomination: "I am absolutely certain that generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick . . . this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow . . .")
McCain should emulate Teddy Roosevelt, who championed a "Square Deal" to help the middle class. Perhaps he'd propose "Nine reforms for '09."
Equally important, he must demonstrate his commitment to reform in dramatic ways. . .
Promise to serve only one term. McCain would change the political calculus if he pledged to devote full-time to enacting reforms and protecting the public, rather than trying to win reelection.
Obviously his age worries some voters. Why not reduce that concern by announcing he would serve only one term?
The argument against such a pledge is that, if elected, he would be a lame-duck. But that's not true if he were elected with a mandate to enact popular reform measures. Then the pressure would be on Congress to cooperate and prove that it wasn't lame.
Fire lobbyists from the campaign. McCain should make clear that he will not be indebted to any lobbyists - including those who are campaign "volunteers."
Apparently the few remaining lobbyists aren't much help anyway. They suggest predictable, outdated tactics when instead he needs to be creative and daring.
Pick a presidential vice president. If McCain takes the one-term pledge, his VP choice needs to be credible as a would-be president. The running mate should have impressive experience, a sincere commitment to implementing the McCain reform platform, and a reputation for honesty.
That criteria describes Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, Florida Governor Charlie Crist, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, and former Ohio congressman and budget director Rob Portman.
Mitt Romney is often mentioned, but his reputation as Zelig, "the human chameleon," would undermine the idea that McCain represents genuine reform and integrity.
Be a leader in improving race relations. Huckabee was right when he said, "Republicans will make a fundamental if not fatal mistake if they seek to win the election by demonizing Barack Obama . . . I do not want to have anyone misrepresent or miss the opportunity to celebrate what I think is a landmark achievement, not just for Barack Obama, but for the United States of America."
To many, Obama holds the moral high ground because he is African-American and his election would signify a new era. McCain rightly praised Obama's historic success in winning his party's nomination and he admits the failure of the modern GOP to reach out to black Americans.
But Obama has acknowledged that, beyond politics, we need an honest, constructive, national conversation about "the complexities of race in this country that we've never really worked through." That conversation is long overdue.
McCain should initiate that conversation. He should invite Obama to discuss ways to improve race relations and break the cycle of poverty for Americans of all backgrounds.
Whether it's a joint appearance on "Oprah" or a town hall meeting, such civil, thoughtful discussion would inspire people to realize that we can make extraordinary progress - not easily by electing a leader, but by truly listening to, and learning from, one another.
That is the key to changing any dynamic - even the dynamic of a presidential campaign.
Todd Domke is a Boston area Republican political analyst, public relations strategist, and author.
