Grappling with an emboldened Russia

A Russian tank made its way to the conflict zone in the breakaway province of South Ossetia over the weekend. (KAZBEK BASAYEV/AFP/Getty Images)

MUCH MORE than in Iraq, world democracy is at stake in Georgia. Russia has preserved the form of democratic elections, within which cliques of secret policemen and economic oligarchs run the country. All the democratic revolutions in Europe in the last 20 years, beginning with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, are presented as "operations" of Western states.

The "rose revolution" in Georgia in 2003 and the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine in 2004-2005 are seen not as changes of regime but as losses to Russian power. Georgia has been an irritant to Russia because, along with Ukraine, it seems to demonstrate that democracy and a Western orientation are possible in post-Soviet states in far Eastern Europe. The nightmare scenario is a "colored revolution" in Russia itself.

The Russian model of development and Russian interests in Georgia hinge upon control of raw materials, especially natural gas and oil. Wealth from gas and oil is controlled by a relatively small group of Russians. Foreign investors in Russia's commodities are pushed aside. Moscow routinely uses its gas reserves to intimidate Ukraine, an importer of gas. Russia characterizes its military operations in its Chechen region as a war on terrorism, though the issue is control of existing and future pipelines. Much the same holds for the new intervention in Georgia.

Georgia's location in the Caucasus, on the Black Sea, makes it crucial to the supply of energy to the West. A new pipeline runs close to South Ossetia, the region of Georgia that Russia now seeks to occupy and control. Russian planes have already bombed parts of Georgia close to the pipeline; according to Georgia officials and British press reports, they have targeted the pipeline itself.

Russia's energy oligarchy has already reshaped the world system. Russian elites believe that great powers that control resources run the world. To a surprising extent, Russia has made the world match its image of it, undermining international cooperation. It has used its energy resources to turn one European country against another. Russian elites tend to dismiss American advocacy of democracy as hypocritical, and the European Union as a passing fancy. The Kremlin treats human rights with consistent cynicism. The intervention in Georgia is justified as a response to supposed Georgian "ethnic cleansing." If Russia's invasion succeeds, the next step will be to declare that Russia has to occupy part of Georgia in order to protect the native population. Then a creeping annexation will likely follow.

How should the United States respond to the new Russia? This is no longer the Soviet Union, to be contained globally; and it is not yet a democratic Russia that can join the West. But if neither containment nor integration is possible, the United States can at least avoid some obvious mistakes. It should avoid personal posturing: President Bush's friendly visits with Vladimir Putin achieved nothing. It should also avoid needless provocations, such as missile-defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic. That angers the Kremlin without improving anyone's security. The enlargement of the NATO military alliance to Ukraine and to Georgia should, however, be considered, if a majority of the populations of these countries express such a wish. Russia's resort to force suggests that the enlargement of NATO may be necessary to secure the region over the next decade.

Over the long run, the best course for America is to set a good example. Half-heartedness about democratic elections has cost the country dearly in the eyes of the Russian population. Russians remember that the United States ignored exit polls in 2000 in Florida, but relied upon them in 2004 to support a repeated round of presidential elections in Ukraine.

The United States should also reconsider whether territorial separation is always the best way to protect human rights. Russia's position on Georgia is a conscious mockery of the West's support for Kosovo's independence. It should drop the rhetoric of the "war on terror." Terrorism cannot be defeated by warfare, and this policy has given cover to Russian repression. Most important, it must seek energy independence. The US power position will improve, and the domination of Russian society by an oligarchy will become impossible.

Timothy Snyder is professor of east European history at Yale University. His most recent book is "The Red Prince: The Secret Lives of a Habsburg Archduke."