Fear and opportunity in Pakistan

KARACHI, PAKISTAN
WITH THE departure of Pervez Musharraf from the political scene, there are fears that Pakistan will now fall into political chaos. The ruling coalition consists of the left-of-center Pakistan People's Party, headed by Asif Ali Zardari, husband of the late former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, and the more rightist Pakistan Muslim League N, headed by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Pundits predict the two sides will go for each other's throats now that the common enemy is gone.

However, the parties claim that, after the signing of the charter of democracy between Bhutto and Sharif in 2006, they have set aside their differences to work for the greater good of the country and for democracy.

Musharraf's resignation creates an opportunity for both parties.

To their credit, the two sides have worked together in the past - prior to the February 2008 elections and after. It is their combined effort that led to Musharraf's departure. At the same time, their priorities are different. The PML-N won elections in Punjab, the country's most populous province, on a one-item agenda of restoring a judiciary that Musharraf had taken on. The PPP, which has a stronger political position within the government, has a broader agenda and needs to cater to more quarters. That is why it has been more careful in how it moves.

The PPP worked on the impeachment of President Musharraf only after intense pressure from coalition allies. Members of the PML-N quit the cabinet and threatened to join the opposition before Zardari and his party moved on the issue. Now that this target has been met, many Pakistanis are wondering what is in store for Pakistan.

Many predict trouble between the two parties given their priorities and the expectations of their supporters. Within a day of Musharraf's exit, the PML-N was insisting on a reinstatement of judges sacked by the former president. In a different approach, the PPP is working toward an immunity package for Musharraf prior to settling the judges issue.

Among the people of Pakistan, many of whom celebrated on city streets after Musharraf resigned, there are fears that the country will now be run by a number of people - which causes confusion and chaos, and represents a significant change from Musharraf's one-man rule. As things stand, with Musharraf withdrawing from the picture, the mantle of leadership lies on the shoulders of three men - Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, PPP chairman Zardari, and PML-N leader Sharif.

How the next president is selected and who is selected will be key indicators of how things will shape up in future. Already, it has been decided that Pakistan will revert to its British style of democracy as envisaged in the country's 1973 constitution. This means that the incoming president will be a largely powerless figure with a ceremonial function at best.

In all this, many wonder whether the country's role in the war on terror will change and whether the current turmoil will weaken Pakistan's resolve at fighting militants holed up in the troubled North-West Frontier Province and semi-autonomous Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Yet after its initial talk of a more home-grown solution to the war on terror, the coalition government too is seeing the wisdom of the policies of Musharraf and is following that route.

With bombings, violence, and terror attacks escalating in the past month or so, the government's leaders have realized that signing peace agreements with militant groups does not help much, and that the only option is to fight fire with fire. In many respects, the charge of fighting the war has been given to Pakistan's army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, who is respected within the army as well as in the public sphere.

While many fear the worst, the departure of Musharraf may help focus the government on more pressing problems like the war on terror and the state of the country's economy. For most Pakistanis, this is the best news since the February elections.

Kamal Siddiqi is an editor with The News, an English-language daily in Pakistan.