Do-it-yourself debate predictions

TONIGHT, JOHN McCAIN will probably deliver the best speech of his life - just as Barack Obama did at his convention. But the real test will be on Sept. 26, when they have their first debate.

To evaluate and predict who will win that debate, here's a do-it-yourself Candidate Debate Calculator.

Estimate how you think they'll perform in 10 categories, add the numbers, divide by 10, and presto! You can predict who will win the debate.

EXPECTATIONS: Since Obama is more eloquent, he's expected to be superior in debate. Yet during the Democratic primary debates, Obama often didn't seem as convincing as rival candidates. And last month, Obama's hourlong televised interview in the "Saddleback Civil Forum" was regarded as less compelling than McCain's interview that followed.

Still, voters have lower expectations for McCain, so it should be easier for him to "beat expectations."

McCain, 57 percent; Obama, 43 percent.

GAFFES: Will a candidate blurt an indiscreet truth or foolish opinion?

Obama is very careful in choosing words - indeed, his thoughtful vagueness can seem quite calculating.

McCain often makes bold assertions or not-so-funny jokes that can be used against him (When asked to define "rich" he replied: "How about $5 million? No, but seriously. . .").

McCain, 41 percent; Obama, 59 percent.

TELEGENIC: Obama is handsome, suave, tall, and charismatic.

McCain looks like a judge on "Matlock." But people realize he's grown old, and became partly disabled, in service to his country.

McCain, 35 percent; Obama, 65 percent.

GRAVITAS: Presidential candidates are expected to have a serious demeanor that reflects real-world experience, dignity, and stature.

Obama seems confident and mature beyond his years. He has seen cruelty and selfishness (e.g. at Harvard Law School).

McCain is a war hero, and has vast experience in foreign affairs and domestic reform. But he must avoid speaking in senator-ese, my friends.

McCain, 63 percent; Obama, 37 percent.

INSPIRING: Obama can make prose sound poetic. He can recite his grocery list and you will be stirred by the thought that he'll end hunger in his household.

McCain shows quiet passion when telling anecdotes about struggle and success.

McCain, 45 percent; Obama, 55 percent.

SOUND BITES: Each will be ready to speak with scripted spontaneity.

Obama is glib. But, judging from McCain's sense of mischief, he'll probably be armed with clever lines.

McCain, 54 percent; Obama, 46 percent.

TRUSTWORTHY: Both candidates are ambitious politicians - not that there's anything wrong with that.

In the Saddleback interviews, Obama evaded questions by talking in platitudes, while McCain spoke earnestly in specifics. McCain's reputation for "straight talk" gives him an advantage.

McCain, 53 percent; Obama, 47 percent.

CONTROL THE AGENDA: A key to winning a debate is to emphasize issues where most voters agree with your positions. Republicans steer discussion to national security and taxes, while Democrats stress healthcare and Dick Cheney.

As a reformer, McCain knows how to be appropriately aggressive in framing issues to his advantage. But, as a former community organizer and media-savvy candidate, so does Obama.

Given the unpopularity of President Bush and anxiety about the economy, Obama is presumed to have the advantage on issues. Yes, Bush has only a 30 percent approval rating. However, the Democratic-controlled Congress has 9 percent approval.

McCain, 46 percent; Obama, 54 percent.

HUMOR: Genuine wit - not ridicule that sounds rehearsed - makes a candidate more likeable.

McCain is often irreverent. As a contrarian, he enjoys being a "happy warrior."

Obama has a winning smile, but, in public, rarely laughs or tells a joke.

There's often a weird moment in debates when a moderator, opponent, or audience member does something inappropriate. If a candidate smartly "works the moment," it can be pivotal.

McCain, 54 percent; Obama, 46 percent.

KNOWLEDGEABLE: From hundreds of Town Hall meetings and 26 years in Congress, McCain is well versed on the issues.

Obama has spent much of his time in the Senate campaigning for president. But he's a quick study and will sound astute in every two-minute answer.

McCain, 53 percent; Obama, 47 percent.

And the pre-winner is: McCain, 50.1 percent; Obama, 49.9 percent. (Now, my friends, you don't have to watch.)

Todd Domke is a Boston-area Republican political analyst, public relations strategist, and author.