In Wisconsin, a tilt toward Obama

GREEN BAY, Wisc.
BECAUSE of the cost of gasoline, the Nikolai family drove only once this summer to their favorite fishing spot up north in Tomahawk. The summer before, they went four or five times. "It breaks my heart because it's like a summer lost to share the things I want to share with my boys," said Ron, whose sons are 15 and 10. "We caught over 200 panfish; crappies, bluegills and perch. It's God's country up there. If I died in Tomahawk, I'd die a happy man."

I interviewed the Nikolai family last October on Morris Avenue, a street full of swing voters near Lambeau Field, home of the football Green Bay Packers. Ron and Kelly, both 38 and customer service representatives, voted for President Bush in 2004. Ron is staying with the Republican Party to vote for John McCain for president in November. Kelly is voting for Democrat Barack Obama.

"I feel like if we're faced with adversity, McCain would be a stern leader," Ron said.

Kelly, who last year said the United States should get out of Iraq, said, "Healthcare just keeps going up. The cost of groceries, everything is going up. We need a change."

The couple reflects the battleground status of Wisconsin, where Democrat John Kerry beat Bush in 2004 by only 11,384 votes out of 3 million cast. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that Green Bay is one of the nation's 10 most presidential ad-saturated cities. Obama and McCain were both here last month. Obama has a 5 percent lead in a Real Clear Politics averaging of the last Wisconsin polls.

The McCain campaign said it is concentrating on Wisconsin after abandoning Michigan. But it better hurry up. Some McCain voters on Morris Avenue displayed some fatalism.

Keith Hornbeck, a 55-year-old trucker, said, "Of the people I know, it's kind of 70-30 Obama. A lot of it is the economy."

Shoe shop owner Paul Herwaldt, 57, said, "I'm kind of holding my nose voting for McCain. He's not a real conservative." Asked to rate McCain on a scale of 10, with 10 being Ronald Reagan, he said, "A six."

A tilt toward Obama was clear for these formerly undecided voters. Leonard Hodkiewicz, 84, and his wife, Evelyn, 76, were Reagan-voting Democrats who support Obama. Evelyn, who volunteers with Alzheimer's patients, voted for Hillary Clinton in the primaries. She thought Obama was untested. "But now he knows his stuff," she said. "It's a tough decision because McCain has his good points. But Obama is very intelligent."

Machinist Mark Muchowski, 54, is a Bush voter who is turning to Obama. "Obama got my attention with his statement that it's about time we get out of the grip of Wall Street and Big Oil," Muchowski said. "It's treasonous that these financiers brought this country to its knees. They should be hung by the highest yardarm and never be allowed to run a company again."

Another Bush-to-Obama voter is Ray Serama, a 44-year-old soft-drink merchandiser. "This spring, I was supposed to drive an elderly person to Knoxville to see her granddaughter's graduation, but I had to cancel it because I couldn't afford the drive," Serama said. "We've got to get inflation down. I'm not even sure why I voted for Bush before."

Finally, there was Gary Trudell, an apartment marketer. One of his sons, Keith, is an Army sergeant who completed a tour of duty guarding convoys in Afghanistan and is soon going to Iraq and Kuwait. Trudell, 54, voted for Bush both times but is leaning toward Obama. He talked just before he and most of his neighbors turned their lawns into a discount parking lot for a Packers game. Trudell is saving his parking proceeds for gasoline to take his family pheasant-hunting in South Dakota.

"I'm proud of my son. He is doing his duty," Trudell said. "But it's a struggle for me. The war is basically stagnant. Afghanistan and Iraq aren't taking charge of their own countries. Just the fact that Obama is promising change, at least it sounds like he will try."

Derrick Z. Jackson can be reached at jackson@globe.com.