Reality intrudes and McCain buckles

FOR MONTHS, political reporters have reported on what they know best, politics. Attack ads, conventions, polls, debates, and gotchas - what George Will calls stagecraft, as opposed to statecraft, the ideas of the candidates. That suddenly changed when reality intruded in the form of an economic crisis.

Wall Street was a presidential test and McCain flunked. When the Wall Street crisis hit, John McCain looked dazed and confused and, yes, old. His clueless initial response - saying the fundamentals of the economy are strong - cost him credibility at a crucial moment. Wall Street was a test of presidential capability and McCain buckled.

Ineffectual under pressure. McCain pulled a transparent stunt in pretending to suspend his campaign so he could go to Washington and somehow appear relevant.

He was quickly exposed as over his head when he sat for 40 minutes in dead silence during a discussion by congressional leaders at the White House. Then House Republicans turned down the first plan, leaving McCain with little to say or do. A week later, he quietly voted for the pork-laden Senate bill and slipped out of town.

The public saw it first. Unlike McCain, Americans quickly knew things were bad. Nearly everyone owns stock these days, in retirement accounts. As the Dow plunged, Barack Obama jumped into a statistically significant lead nationally and in crucial states.

Presidential stature. Obama conducted himself with cool and calm during the bailout crisis, just as he did in Tuesday's debate. In short, he looks presidential. We haven't had one in so long I forgot what a president looks like.

The reality of unemployment. Obama is forcing McCain to spend TV dollars in expensive toss-up states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. McCain's quitting Michigan was about too few dollars, too few voters - a recent published poll showed Obama leading by 13 points - and too few jobs.

A job is all that matters when you're unemployed. The Labor Department reported 159,000 jobs were lost in September. Since January, we've lost more than 750,000 jobs and are on our way to 1 million by year's end. Right now, we are a nation with 2 million unemployed.

McCain wants to disqualify Obama. A losing campaign has one chance to win when it's running out of time: disqualify the opponent. McCain's plan is to turn Obama into a risky weirdo who's not like us (white people).

Desperate times, desperate hockey mom. Sarah Palin is out attackin' Obama's character using a flimsy connection to the 1960s radical, anti-Vietnam War bomber Bill Ayers - they once served on a nonprofit board together. Sarah calls this "palin' around with terrorists." Obama has denounced Ayers' words and actions, most of which occurred when Obama was 8. Obama used the attack to make his move against McCain.

Ready, aim, post. The Obama campaign armed its supporters (it's got over 2 million volunteers and contributors) with a 13-minute Web video that had been produced for just this occasion. It's the true story of McCain's strong ties to Charles Keating, a convicted real estate swindler. A charter member of the Keating Five during the savings and loan scandal in the late 1980s, McCain improperly and unsuccessfully used his office to call off federal regulators. McCain, then 58, had received $112,000 in Keating-related campaign contributions plus free trips for McCain and his family on Keating's private jet to the tycoon's retreat in the Bahamas.

Careful what you wish for. Can you imagine 10 of these interminable town hall debates as McCain wanted? Tuesday's debate was boring - except McCain calling Obama "that one" probably got the attention of black voters.

CNN's post-debate poll showed 54 percent of those who had watched felt Obama won; 30 percent said McCain. CBS had it 40-26 percent Obama. Those polls understated Obama's command of the evening.

Obama managed to tie McCain's ceaseless charge about the surge to the financial crisis. Obama said we need the $10 billion a month the war costs.

Tom Brokaw played Clock Nazi the whole night, enforcing time limits just when the candidates started to really debate.

McCain quickly left the stage, grasping the reality of his predicament.

Dan Payne is a Boston-area media consultant who has worked for Democratic candidates around the country. He does political analysis for WBUR radio.