Which way will the secret Bush voter go?

SHE LIVES in the blue state of Massachusetts, works in a bastion of Bay State liberalism, and voted for George W. Bush.

Back in 2004, she confessed her Election Day secret to me. Four years later, I wondered how much she regretted her vote, whether she told anyone about it, and how it would affect her choice in 2008.

Acknowledging a Bush vote in Massachusetts is not for the fainthearted. Democrat John Kerry won 62 percent of the ballots cast in his home state in 2004. Along with Senator Edward M. Kennedy and Governor Deval Patrick, Kerry led the charge for Barack Obama in 2008. During primary season, Democrats split behind Obama and Hillary Clinton, who won the Massachusetts primary. Today, this is passionate Obama country.

But, this woman did selectively confide the unthinkable to a circle of intimates, with mixed results: "I started with my boyfriend. His face registered shock and awe, but he managed to say, 'You're an independent thinker. I like that about you.' Brimming with new-found confidence, I turned next to my best friend. Big mistake. 'How could you?' she gasped. 'What's the matter with you?" This was heresy. 'Why, why, why?' "

At the time, the "Why?" was simple to answer. She believed Bush would do a better job than Kerry of protecting the country.

"I knew people who died on the planes that crashed into the Twin Towers. Preventing another terrorist attack was my number-one issue," she said. "Of course, Bush has turned out to be a disappointment to me. I didn't have a crystal ball when I cast my vote to show me what the next four years would look like. I couldn't imagine we'd still be at war in two countries. That the economy would tank. Or that America's image in the world would be so tarnished. I couldn't imagine I would know someone who died in Iraq. That I would pray at his flag-draped coffin. Nor could I have predicted the value of my home would plummet or that I couldn't afford a full tank of gas."

So, this election cycle, the choice is obvious, right? It's Democrat Barack Obama.

She said she still isn't sure.

With less than a week to go until Election Day, polls show Obama leading everywhere nationally, in battleground states, and certainly in Massachusetts, where a recent survey put him ahead of Republican John McCain by 23 points. The vote of one woman in her 40s, who is registered unenrolled, isn't going to change the outcome here. On its own, it doesn't change the potential for the Obama landslide some predict across the country.

This voter is no "Walmart Mom," a key target of the McCain campaign, and the main reason behind the selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as McCain's running mate. She's an Ivy League-educated career woman, who voted for Al Gore in 2000.

But, there is that old adage, the only poll that counts is the one taken on Election Day. And, not all voters know exactly what they will do when it finally arrives. Until then, they mull the options.

As my secret Bush voter muses: "With my 2004 vote, did I lose the right to question Obama's experience and readiness to be president? Or, that he's promising more than he can deliver, especially in the face of the financial crisis? Am I only allowed to express concerns about McCain's age, temperament, and choice of Sarah Palin for his running mate?"

After the final presidential debate, I labeled McCain a "politically dead man walking." McCain failed to make the case for McCain during that showdown and for most of his campaign. Instead, he told the country why Obama should not be president.

It's difficult to see how this negative message, layered upon the negative feelings voters already have about the economy and the general direction of the country, add up to a positive outcome for the Republican ticket.

So I believe.

But, as my secret Bush voter said, "On Election Day, I'll go into the booth, draw the curtain, and cast my vote. Anonymously."

Joan Vennochi can be reached at vennochi@globe.com.