MCMANSIONS , outsized contributors to the nation's carbon footprint, epitomize many of the excesses of the era before the current economic collapse. These homes are super-sized, too often uninspired in design, and sometimes have been the result of tearing down smaller, older homes in established neighborhoods.
As glimmers of hope begin to appear regarding the economy, what can we expect to emerge as housing markets regain strength? Will the production of McMansions pick up where it left off? Or can we expect a somewhat different kind of housing production to take place?
Population forecasts conducted by the Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy at Northeastern University make it clear that New England is aging rapidly and this is likely to affect the demand for large homes, perhaps substantially. The front end of the baby-boom generation is now pushing past age 60. Over the next 10 years, the increase in household formation throughout New England will be largely confined to those over 55. Such households traditionally look for smaller homes, regardless of their wealth and income. The demand from this section of the demographic spectrum will be for smaller homes, condominiums, and age-restricted housing. Not for McMansions.
At the same time, the number of households in the 35-to-55 age group will actually decline over this period. These younger families, usually with children at home but old enough to be able to afford a large home, normally constitute the largest market for McMansions. But this demographic group will be shrinking and, given the implosion of the economy, less likely to want or be able to afford a McMansion.
We anticipate a modest increase in the number of households in the younger 25-to-35 age group over the next 10 years. These families will often be first-time homebuyers, and will need more modest homes. Such homes work best when they can be built on modest lots - using land more efficiently, and reducing the cost per home of roads, sidewalks, and utilities. These homes - workforce housing - typify the type of neighborhood development that is found in the wonderful residential sections of our older and more established communities.
Over the next decade, the real challenge for housing policy will be programs to assure that enough housing of this kind is actually built.
What is enough? First, it is important to meet the needs of the demographic shifts expected over this period. But of equal importance is the provision of housing necessary for the economy to expand as the nation emerges from the recession.
Studies on economic expansion by the Dukakis Center have demonstrated that there is a powerful correlation between extremely high housing costs and slow economic growth. Since 2000, those areas with the very highest housing costs - such as Greater Boston, San Francisco, Honolulu, and the New York metro area - have experienced net domestic outmigration and slower employment growth than regions with more modest housing costs. Indeed, the 10 most expensive metropolitan areas in the country all experienced net out-migration and slower employment growth than average while those areas with somewhat more modest home prices enjoyed the fastest growth in new jobs.
The current downturn in home prices is an opportunity for the region to become more competitive in this area. What is essential is that as the economy recovers, we have sufficient housing at affordable prices so that firms can expand in Greater Boston and be assured of a workforce to meet their needs.
So we will need housing for young homeowners and for those 55 and older - two demographic groups that want more modest homes, condominiums, and attached townhouses often in neighborhoods with good transit. What we will not need is more McMansions, and therefore fewer are likely to be built. Just another sign that we have entered a new era . . . and perhaps just in time.
Barry Bluestone is the dean of the School of Social Science, Urban Affairs, and Public Policy at Northeastern University. Ted Carman is president of Concord Square Planning and Development Inc. 
