THIS SPECIAL election doesn’t seem so special.
Where are the famous, inspiring candidates we expected to see in a race to fill Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat?
On the GOP side, there is no real contest. State Senator Scott Brown will be the nominee, barring something weird happening. (“News’’ about his winning Cosmopolitan magazine’s “Sexiest Man Contest’’ doesn’t count - that was 27 years ago.)
The four-candidate Democratic primary contest is relatively dull, but one of them will win. “None of the above’’ is not an option.
Who will prevail?
Campaigns draw on four resources: time, money, people, and ideas.
The most interesting thing about this contest is that each candidate has an advantage in one of those four resources:
MONEY: Stephen Pagliuca, co-owner of the Boston Celtics, is reputedly worth $400 million. He is putting his money where his mouth is. Unfortunately, his mouth is on television. If you watch 20 minutes of TV, you can’t escape his boring commercials.
His message is simple: I am a nice, successful businessman . . . and please don’t pronounce the “g’’ in Pagliuca.
The saturation advertising is so unpersuasive that Pagliuca will likely end up dead last. Deval Patrick’s strategist, Doug Rubin, helped talk Pagliuca into running and apparently has his own campaign slogan: “Let’s share your wealth - starting with me.’’
Just imagine: If Pagliuca sent a $1,000 check to 300,000 Democratic primary voters, his campaign could also be his economic stimulus program.
PEOPLE: Alan Khazei hopes to build an army of volunteers. He has the street cred - he is co-founder of City Year, the nonprofit youth service corps.
The first sign of success for his organization was its raising over $1 million in the first week of his candidacy.
Khazei seems good-hearted. Will he emulate Pagliuca and advertise that he is nice? Or will he invest more in organizing, canvassing and “get out the vote’’ efforts, to build a campaign machine like long shot candidates Deval Patrick and Barack Obama?
Here’s an idea: Pagliuca’s campaign reportedly pays petitioners $5 a signature to get him on the ballot. If Khazei volunteers collected 100,000 signatures for Pagliuca, they could donate their $500,000 in signature-collection fees to the Khazei campaign. Bingo!
In a low turnout election, can Khazei activists turn out enough voters to win a plurality? Stranger things have happened.
IDEAS: Michael Capuano is the most knowledgeable on federal issues, having served in the US House for 11 years. In debate, he will claim he’d have the connections and clout to bring home the pork for Massachusetts.
His big theme is that he best represents Kennedy’s legacy of passionate liberalism. It is meant to be a contrast with the front-runner, Attorney General Martha Coakley. The congressman says she is insufficiently liberal. But realistically, any of these Democrats would likely vote the same as John Kerry 99 percent of the time.
Capuano also attacks Coakley for being too cautious. But do voters consider caution a toxic trait for the US Senate, often described as “the world’s greatest deliberative body’’?
TIME: Martha Coakley was the first to announce her candidacy, and was preparing to run long before that.
Polls show Coakley comfortably ahead, so time is on her side. In this short special election, is there enough time for her rivals to catch up?
Coakley may be tempted to “run out the clock,’’ as Celtics co-owner Pagliuca might put it - but not taking any risks is a risk in itself. She doesn’t seem to have a clear strategy or message, and she could use a charisma injection.
But she has high name recognition, being the only candidate to have run statewide.
An even bigger advantage is her gender; she’s the only woman in the race. In a field with no exciting candidates, the idea of electing the first female senator in Massachusetts history may be excitement enough for Democratic primary voters.
Could something still change the dynamic of this race?
What if Pagliuca bought People magazine and named himself “Sexiest Man Alive’’?
What if something unexpected happens in a debate - like, one of the candidates says something that is actually thought-provoking?
Come on, candidates. Massachusetts is “the cradle of liberty,’’ but that doesn’t mean you should rock us to sleep.
Todd Domke is a Republican political analyst, public relations strategist, and author. 
