QUICK, WHO’S a more credible Republican candidate, Charlie Baker or Scott Brown?
Baker, of course. But why? Although he’s served stints as a state cabinet official, Baker hasn’t held an elected post above that of selectman.
Brown, by contrast, has served as selectman, state representative, and state senator.
Yet Baker, who has primary opposition, is considered a topflight candidate for governor, while Brown, the GOP’s Senate nominee, is thought to have only an outside chance of winning.
Here’s one big reason for those judgments: Baker is running for a Beacon Hill office, while Brown wants to go to Capitol Hill.
The different desired destinations matter. Baker can plausibly cast himself as a socially liberal, fiscally moderate Republican in the Bill Weld mold, while Brown must contend with concerns that his election would aid and abet the increasingly conservative national party.
This state is accustomed to Republican governors. But Massachusetts hasn’t elected a Republican senator since Ed Brooke won a second term in 1972. We haven’t sent any Republicans to Washington since 1994, the year that both Peter Blute and Peter Torkildsen won their second - and last - terms in the House.
Their experience illustrates Brown’s challenge. In 1995, Newt Gingrich became House speaker, an ascension that marked the beginning of a new era of aggressive partisanship in Washington. Gingrich and the Washington Republicans were disdained here, and in 1996, a backlash against the national GOP helped defeat both Blute and Torkildsen.
“Torky and I had the most independent voting records of any Republicans in Congress, but if the public decides they don’t like the Republicans who are leading the party, it is very problematic,’’ says Blute.
Weld suffered a similar fate when he tried to unseat John Kerry in 1996. Seen as an independent star on Beacon Hill, as a Senate candidate he came to be viewed as part of a polarized partisan constellation. He never found a way to disarm concerns that his election would help enable Republican Senate leaders who were anathema to Massachusetts.
Brown’s campaign professes not to be worried.
“That may have been an issue . . . with Bill Weld, but I don’t think it is relevant to what is happening today,’’ says senior adviser Eric Fehrnstrom.
Actually, in the time since Weld’s loss, the Republican-led impeachment of Bill Clinton and the hyper-partisan years of George W. Bush have only rendered the national GOP more of a hazard for Bay State Republicans.
“There is a significant percentage of unenrolled voters who will vote for a Republican for state office, but won’t vote for a Republican for federal office,’’ says one Republican strategist. “You see it in polling. Test the same candidate for Congress or the US Senate versus statewide office, and the federal races are a 15 to 20 point drag on that candidate.’’
As an aspirant for an office that would put him atop the state political ladder, Baker doesn’t have to worry as much about the effects of national politics. He’s merrily going his own way, declaring himself in favor of gay marriage and even choosing an informal running mate who is gay.
Brown, too, is trying to instill the notion that he’d be an independent voice. But the reality is that he’d also be a vote for a conservative GOP Senate leadership team whose values are out of sync with those of Massachusetts. And the more voters worry that Democratic control of the Senate could be threatened next year, the bigger that hurdle will become.
Further, issues take on a different hue depending on the race. When Baker talks about repealing the recent state sales tax increase, framing it as a way to help the state’s economy, he isn’t immediately seen as a candidate adopting Republican campaign boilerplate.
Not so when Brown advocates federal tax cuts. Anyone familiar with federal fiscal reality will recognize that as pure politics rather than a responsible policy prescription.
So, while Baker has a real shot at being the state’s next governor, Brown will have to solve a riddle that’s baffled more able pols if he’s to become Massachusetts’s new senator.
Scot Lehigh can be reached at lehigh@globe.com. 
