Round One goes to Baker and his big bucks

The Bay State’s first black governor, and the first Democrat to win the corner office in 16 years, is at risk of turning into a blip in Massachusetts political history - a one-term governor whose legacy becomes the zeal to replace him with a Republican.

In the early voting - money - Republican Charlie Baker is winning.

Baker raised $1.85 million over five months of campaigning, giving him three times more cash on hand than Patrick. That’s a fairly serious wake-up call for an incumbent Democrat who is best friends with a president.

Some of Baker’s money is coming from traditional Democratic donors, including previous Patrick supporters.

Baker’s big bucks mean one thing to Lawrence DiCara, a longtime Democrat. “He’s for real, which I knew anyway,’’ said DiCara, who remains a Patrick supporter.

Still, it’s only Round One. It’s a winning one for Baker, the former CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, but there’s a long way to go before a knock-out. One question, said Democrat Scott Harshbarger, a former attorney general and gubernatorial candidate, is whether this is “one-shot money’’ - contributions from people who know Baker, like him and owe him what Harshbarger labels “the chits of good will’’ - or something deeper and more dangerous for Patrick.

Baker was “able to translate his reputation and record into a significant fundraising event. If the next round demonstrates significant political strength . . . don’t kid yourself, this is going to be a major fight,’’ Harshbarger said.

Rob Gray, Baker’s chief strategist, predicts the money flow to the Republican’s campaign is “eminently sustainable.’’ He attributes the fundraising success to “a combination of people knowing Charlie as a government leader and a business leader and believing in his ability . . . plus a dissatisfaction with the way Deval Patrick has managed, or really not managed effectively, the state budget.’’

The landscape is tough for Democrats nationwide, from the president to members of Congress to governors. Voters are angry over fallout from the poor economy and unhappy over some policies, such as healthcare reform.

In Massachusetts, disappointment over Patrick’s tenure is translating into a real sense of political vulnerability. He was elected with expectations so high they would be difficult to meet under the best circumstances. A poor economy, plus Patrick’s own missteps, worsened the gap between promise and reality.

“When you cut programs, you lose people along the way,’’ said Steve Crawford, a spokesman for Patrick’s political committee.

But it’s more personal than that. Patrick should not underestimate the sense of betrayal some of his original backers feel, nor the lack of fear they have about giving money to a challenger. Being unafraid of repercussions may say something good about Patrick as a person, but it lessens his control as a politician. Boston Mayor Thomas Menino could tell him that.

Much of the conventional wisdom about Patrick’s chances for reelection focus on the presence of a third-party candidate in the race, state Treasurer Timothy Cahill. As long as Patrick holds onto his base, he will prevail, the general thinking goes. But counting on Cahill is risky, because even some who make up Patrick’s liberal base are disappointed in his performance and agenda.

The governor is doing more to drive a positive message about his accomplishments - pension, ethics and transportation reform. He is also working to finalize education reform legislation. With revenue up, he was able to restore money to a program that aids poor families. He can also try to contrast his administration to a Legislature that is ever ripe for scandal and generally unpopular with voters.

But whether he can recapture anything close to the enthusiasm that drove the original Patrick movement is an open question.

“Deval may win despite himself,’’ DiCara said. “. . . He has to hope the economy does better and tax revenues improve. He also has to hope Cahill beats up Baker.’’

By itself, money doesn’t guarantee success. In the last gubernatorial campaign, Patrick wasn’t the candidate with the most money. He was the candidate with the most true believers.

To beat Baker, he needs them to believe in him again.

Joan Vennochi can be reached at vennochi@globe.com.