Very soft dominoes
Surprising insights from the social sciences
EVER SINCE PRESIDENT EISENHOWER embraced it in a 1954 press conference, the "domino" theory of international relations has animated much of our foreign policy, from Vietnam to Iraq. In essence, the theory proposes that a change of regime in one country causes neighboring regimes to fall like dominos in the same political direction. However, a new statistical analysis of the spread of democracy among 130 countries over 150 years suggests a more nuanced view. While the data do support a democratic domino effect, it's quite weak. Consider that most countries have multiple neighbors and competing influences on their politics. For example, Iraq may be a new beacon of democracy in the Middle East, but there have been other beacons for a while (e.g., Israel, Turkey).
Leeson, P. & Dean, A., "The Democratic Domino Theory: An Empirical Investigation," American Journal of Political Science (forthcoming).
The power of a role model
AS BARACK OBAMA has risen to national prominence, pundits have debated whether his success changes the nature of race relations in America. A new study offers a scientific test of this proposition. Researchers administered tests of verbal ability to a nationwide sample of blacks and whites at four time points - twice in the middle of the campaign, and twice right after Obama's nomination and election. In general, controlling for age, English proficiency, and education level, whites scored significantly higher than blacks. However, this difference shrank to insignificance right after Obama's nomination (for those who watched his speech) and right after the election. This suggests that a role model like Obama can have a powerful effect on performance.
Marx, D. et al., "The 'Obama Effect': How a Salient Role Model Reduces Race-Based Performance Differences," Journal of Experimental Social Psychology (forthcoming).
Don't underestimate yourself
ARE YOU ONE of those people who prepares for the possibility of bad news by assuming the worst? New research suggests this is not a good way to live. In one experiment, students took a computerized personality test and then had to wait around for the "official" results. While waiting, the computer randomly offered them a good or bad unofficial prediction of the outcome. After receiving the "official" results, students felt the same regardless of which expectation they had been given - students with bad results felt equally bad, and students with good results felt equally good. In other words, having low expectations didn't give people an extra psychological boost after beating expectations. Likewise, students who had low expectations of their performance on midterm exams did not feel better than students with high expectations after getting their exams back. The authors speculate that people cling to the low-expectations strategy because they falsely assume that the initial emotional impact from learning the actual outcome will last for a long time.
Golub, S. et al., "Anticipating One's Troubles: The Costs and Benefits of Negative Expectations," Emotion (April 2009).
Border danger, by the numbers
ONE OF THE central issues in the immigration debate is border security. Now, a team of researchers has created what may be the first comprehensive mathematical model of the US-Mexico border, and the results aren't encouraging. Even with a recently expedited deportation process, the probability of a terrorist successfully crossing the border is estimated at 93 percent. The analysis also suggests that the main bottleneck is the number of beds in immigration detention facilities; if there are no free beds, individuals are released into the United States with only a court notice. The authors note that even the comprehensive legislation put forth in 2007 would have come up short by more than 10,000 beds. Worse, even with a much bigger government budget, a terrorist would still have a pretty good chance of getting in. Granted, the mathematical model is not a perfect representation of what is ultimately a complex reality, but then that raises the question of how well anyone really understands the border.
Wein, L. et al., "Analyzing the Homeland Security of the U.S.-Mexico Border," Risk Analysis (May 2009).
The trouble you aren't noticing
ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVISTS OFTEN cite the boiling frog metaphor to explain the danger of climate change: If you put a frog in boiling water, he will jump out; if you put him in tepid water and slowly turn up the heat, he will just sit there and cook. Unfortunately, this metaphor may also reflect a more fundamental acceptance of any deteriorating state of affairs, including deviant behavior. In four experiments, researchers found that people were much more likely to tolerate deviant behavior (in this case, cheating) if it developed gradually than if it happened abruptly. The effect held even when people were paid to detect deviant behavior.
Gino, F. & Bazerman, M., "When Misconduct Goes Unnoticed: The Acceptability of Gradual Erosion in Others' Unethical Behavior," Journal of Experimental Social Psychology (forthcoming).
Kevin Lewis is an Ideas columnist. He can be reached at kevin.lewis.ideas@gmail.com. 