With the final of the Nobel Prizes announced earlier today, we now know that Peter A. Diamond, Dale T. Mortensen and Christopher A Pissarides will be awarded the Economics Nobel in December in Stockholm.
So, here's the important question: did anyone predict it correctly?
Every year, Thomson Reuters releases predictions for the scientific and economic Nobels, using citation data, as well as some common sense.
Essentially, they find those scientists whose papers are among the most cited (as a proxy for research impact and esteem among their colleagues), and then see if there are certain areas or themes that are deserving of a Prize this year (this part requires some finesse). Thomson Reuters got nothing correct this year.
Tyler Cowen, economist and blogger at Marginal Revolution, also released some predictions. He also struck out.
Greg Mankiw has links to more predictions, and among these we do seem to have a winner! Using voting of faculty, Northwestern's Kellogg school blog predicted it correctly.
And lastly, let's not forget that in the season premiere episode of the Simpsons, the writers also made a prediction of Jagdish Bhagwati's win. This too, alas, was wrong.
Kevin Hartnett is a writer in Ann Arbor, Michigan. His last article for Ideas was about choosing Congress by lottery.
Guest blogger Simon Waxman is Managing Editor of Boston Review and has written for WBUR, Alternet, McSweeney's, Jacobin, and others.
Guest blogger Elizabeth Manus is a writer living in New York City. She has been a book review editor at the Boston Phoenix, and a columnist for The New York Observer and Metro.
Guest blogger Sarah Laskow is a freelance writer and editor in New York City. She edits Smithsonian's SmartNews blog and has contributed to Salon, Good, The American Prospect, Bloomberg News, and other publications.
Guest blogger Joshua Glenn is a Boston-based writer, publisher, and freelance semiotician. He was the original Brainiac blogger, and is currently editor of the blog HiLobrow, publisher of a series of Radium Age science fiction novels, and co-author/co-editor of several books, including the story collection "Significant Objects" and the kids' field guide to life "Unbored."
Guest blogger Ruth Graham is a freelance journalist in New Hampshire, and a frequent Ideas contributor. She is a former features editor for the New York Sun, and has written for publications including Slate and the Wall Street Journal.
Joshua Rothman is a graduate student and Teaching Fellow in the Harvard English department, and an Instructor in Public Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. He teaches novels and political writing.