The Big One
is it only a matter of time before a catastrophic hurricane slams into New England? University of Rhode Island oceanography professor and hurricane tracker Isaac Ginis, 53, steps into the storm and explains just how vulnerable we are.
Meteorologists have gotten good at predicting where a hurricane will go, and you've spent a career developing computer models that can forecast how strong a hurricane will get. But, really, how hard could this math be? A calculator, some long division, and now I'm a weatherman, right?
To forecast what a storm will do tomorrow, that would take the entire world population probably one year of calculations. That tells you how much computer technology is helping us to make our forecasts.
You've studied tropical storms worldwide, from the Pacific Ocean to the Caribbean. Say a hurricane forms off the Bahamas and heads for the Cape. Why are you worried?
I think that this is one of the biggest potential threats for New England in terms of landfalling hurricanes: They move very fast. The 1938 storm came to New England with a forward speed of 60 miles per hour. It was moving like an express train. That implies that we will not have much time to make a decision about preparation and evacuation measures.
And now we've got climate change to think about. Do we know how global warming will affect hurricane activity?
What we know is that storms are likely to get more intense in warm climates. This is a big concern, because any increase in storm intensity, even by a small percentage, may lead to a significant increase in potential damage.
And more and more, we keep building on the coast: homes, resort communities.
I think the biggest concern is a continued increase in coastal vulnerability. Some economic numbers suggest that infrastructure vulnerability increases 7 percent per year, meaning it doubles every 10 years. So one question that I'm particularly interested in is: Are we going to do nothing about that, knowing that we're becoming more vulnerable?
Still, almost everyone dreams of owning a place on the beach. Of course, I could buy half of Central America for the price of coastal land around here, but who wouldn't want to build a house on the New England shore?
I wouldn't.
Really?
Some people in some locations in New England should not build. Some people even say, "Just let me build. I'm not going to pay for insurance." People can build homes on the coast, but they can't expect that someone will cover their expenses.
Each year, the government releases a forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season [June 1-November 30]. According to the latest forecast by the National Weather Service, we could see as many as 10 hurricanes in 2008 in the North Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. Are these forecasts ever right?
The success has been mixed, and some people are questioning if there's any value in them. I feel strongly that we need to continue to do that. But these forecasts could distract from the main message - that one powerful storm can cause extensive damage.
So be prepared, whether we're projected to get two hurricanes or 10.
I always give this example: In 1992, there were fewer than average hurricanes in the Atlantic, but that year there was one of the most devastating hurricanes ever, which hit land in Florida - Hurricane Andrew, Category 5, $26 billion in damage. 