Wireless switching may be rocky

The Nov. 24 launch of "wireless number portability" is expected to roil the hypercompetitive US wireless sector. Surveys estimate that one quarter or more of the nation's 150 million cellphone owners hope to switch carriers once they don't need to get a new number.

But some analysts and industry insiders warn that consumers may be in for a big disappointment, especially if they think wireless number portability will be anything like the normally smooth process of switching long-distance carriers on a home phone.

Rosen, who says he is fed up with poor coverage and "horrible customer service" from AT&T Wireless, may discover that his plan to switch his AT&T number to T-Mobile will be more difficult and take longer than he expects.

For example, almost without exception, everyone making a switch will have to buy a new phone. Many will have to pay an early termination fee of up to $200 to dump their current provider.

When they make the switch, subscribers will not be able to use their new phone for incoming calls for anywhere from two to 24 hours. Opportunities to switch a landline home or business number to a wireless phone account will be sharply limited. And the change takes effect Nov. 24 only in Greater Boston and the 99 other largest US metro areas; residents of northern New England and Central and Western Massachusetts will have to wait until May.

Industry analysts and some wireless executives worry that consumer expectations may be too high.

"There is not a chance that this will be a smooth transition for customers considering taking their number from one carrier to another in the first few weeks," said Eddie Hold, vice president of telecom services for Current Analysis Inc., a Sterling, Va., consulting firm. "Many consumers that try this switch will find that they are in wireless limbo without a number for hours and potentially longer. My advice would be to hold out for a few weeks until the carriers have got initial kinks out of the systems."

John Hanson, a telecom specialist with Mercer Management Consulting in Boston, already predicts that number portability will not turn out to be "the defining event" for this industry.

"You'll see carriers having to compete harder on the value of the offer and the quality of service -- just like in other service businesses," he said.

He predicted that some companies will make their customers go through hoops to terminate service.

A handful of carriers have already negotiated deals among themselves to allow number switching. Nextel Communications has announced deals with Cingular and Sprint. Yesterday T-Mobile, the smallest of the six national carriers, said it had forged deals with all five of its larger rivals.

Except for Verizon Wireless and Verizon Communications, no wireless carriers have announced that they can transfer an existing landline number to a cellphone. That's the lure, many analysts say, that is needed to double or triple the number of American phone users, estimated at about 4 percent, who have only a cellphone.

John Tinter, vice president of marketing strategy at AT&T Wireless, said the number transfer is a new technical challenge.

"We've never done this before, and I wouldn't want anybody to think that this is going to be bug-free on day one. I do expect there to be hiccups."

Sprint PCS spokesman Larry McDonnell agreed: "There are a lot of moving pieces, and there's going to be a learning curve."

Faith Seiders, Cingular's director of sales operations, said the Atlanta-based carrier has spent $210 million on back-office systems to handle number switching and expects to spend $200 million more this year. Cingular last year began imposing a fee -- typically 32 cents a month for Boston-area customers -- to recoup its costs, as have AT&T, Sprint, and Nextel.

The Management Network Group, a Boston- and Kansas-based national telecom consulting firm, estimates that up to 15 percent of all attempts to switch an existing phone number will fail. If an agent mistypes a single letter or digit in a customer's name and address, computerized systems will reject the transfer, the consultant said.

The group estimates that 30 million US cellphone owners will want to move a phone number to another carrier in the next 12 months. Those include 18 million who choose a new carrier because they can now keep their old number, and another 12 million who would switch wireless carriers anyway -- for reasons such as lower price, better coverage, or a more attractive phone.

Rosen, the Canton lawyer, estimates that hundreds of clients have his current phone number in connection with real estate ventures, a law practice, and a wireless accessories business. Being able to keep the old number "is a good part of what's persuading me to make the move," Rosen said.

Figuring out which carriers will win and lose customers has generated intense speculation, with many analysts forecasting that Verizon Wireless -- the largest US carrier with more than 34 million subscribers -- will be a big net gainer because of its reputation for reliability. Nextel's "DirectConnect" walkie-talkie feature may make the carrier an attractive new choice for many businesses. Carriers with a high monthly subscriber loss, such as Cingular, Sprint, and T-Mobile, are usually seen as the most vulnerable.

All six national carriers -- AT&T, Cingular, Nextel, Sprint PCS, T-Mobile, and Verizon Wireless -- are urging customers to have a copy of their most recent bill when they arrange a switch so their account number and exact address are available.

"As long as you do that, I think with us, as well as with most of our competitors, the process will continue normally as if you were coming in to buy a new phone, period," said Nextel spokesman John E. Redman.

Peter J. Howe can be reached at howe@globe.com.