The confidence factor, from one with plenty of it

At the head of the class, Rosabeth Moss Kanter is an intellectual whirlwind: loud, expansive, in constant motion.

She is lecturing a group of Middle Eastern executives visiting Harvard Business School. The case study is how Nelson Mandela transformed South Africa and, by extension, how leaders instill confidence. This is the subject of Kanter's new book, and she is trumpeting it with her practiced showmanship, pointing and pacing, folding her hands together and tracing arcs in the air.

"One of the ways you convert a negative relationship into a positive relationship is you reach out," Kanter says, her voice rising. Then she strolls down an aisle and extends her hand to a bespectacled woman in a yellow chador. At first the woman looks almost frightened. Then she extends her hand, and Kanter gives it a quick squeeze.

Kanter has no shortage of confidence. The Ernest L. Arbuckle professor at Harvard Business School has written 16 books and advises corporations and governments around the globe. But her latest book, "Confidence: How Winning Streaks & Losing Streaks Begin and End," isn't about the self-confidence of individual leaders. It's about how they step up to the central task of leadership by finding confidence in their employees and delivering confidence to their organizations.

Like many of Kanter's previous books, notably "The Change Masters," her new volume is light on theories and metrics but packed with success stories and turnaround tales. We learn how the University of Connecticut's women's team came to dominate college basketball, and how Continental Airlines bested its rivals by continuing to fly through the August 2003 blackout. There are dozens of heroes, from Mandela and New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick to corporate chiefs Jim Kilts at Gillette Co. and Gordon Bethune at Continental.

What such leaders have in common is a belief in confidence as a system and what Kanter calls an "egoless" management style that consists of listening, fostering open dialogue and initiative, holding others to their goals, and inviting them to believe in themselves and rise to the occasion. Kanter thinks this new breed of leader, an antidote to the command-and-control captains of the 1990s, could emerge as the dominant model for successful companies in the current decade. Because, in her view, business success and failure aren't just episodes, but self-perpetuating trajectories shaped by confidence or lack thereof.

To understand these dynamics, Kanter's research took her into the world of sports, where such trajectories are called not booms and busts but winning and losing streaks. Winning teams celebrate together, while losing team members pass the blame. "On the way up, success creates positive momentum," she writes. "People who believe they are likely to win are also likely to put in the extra effort at difficult moments to ensure that victory. On the way down, failure feeds on itself."

Shifting from decline to success means restoring people's confidence in themselves and their organization, whether it's a business, a sports franchise, or even a country, Kanter suggests. And she thinks this can be done systematically if change managers are focused on successful outcomes. Bethune hired team players to replace autocratic bosses and disseminated information widely across his airline. UConn basketball coaches Geno Auriemma and Christine Dailey forged chemistry among a diverse group of young women. Kilts restored accountability and set realistic sales targets at Gillette. Mandela labored mightily to reconcile black and white citizens of South Africa.

Kanter shared these stories, and some lessons of winning and losing streaks, last week at a breakfast speech to the Commonwealth Institute, a Boston forum for executive women.

"The secret of winning is try not to lose twice in a row," she said. And as a corollary for those persevering in turnaround situations, she added what she jokingly called "Kanter's law." To wit: "Every project looks like a failure in the middle."

After the breakfast meeting, a line of executives waited for Kanter to autograph copies of her book.

Ellyn McColgan, the president of Fidelity Brokerage Co., who followed Kanter to the podium, conceded she was a tough act to follow. "She makes her points by using stories that people can relate to," McColgan said, contrasting that with the usual run of management advice. "Most everything that can be written about leadership has been written. Then you have to do it."

Robert Weisman can be reached at weisman@globe.com.